Coronavirus in Latvia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Latvia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

784Apr 24666Apr 15926May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Latvia of about 1.64% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 42 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Latvia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

666

-

Apr 16

675

+9 (+1.35%)

Apr 17

682

+7 (+1.04%)

Apr 18

712

+30 (+4.4%)

Apr 19

727

+15 (+2.11%)

Apr 20

739

+12 (+1.65%)

Apr 21

748

+9 (+1.22%)

Apr 22

761

+13 (+1.74%)

Apr 23

778

+17 (+2.23%)

Apr 24

784

+6 (+0.771%)

Apr 25

800
794 - 805

+16 (+1.99%)

Apr 26

813
808 - 818

+13 (+1.64%)

Apr 27

826
821 - 831

+13 (+1.64%)

Apr 28

840
834 - 845

+14 (+1.64%)

Apr 29

853
848 - 859

+14 (+1.64%)

Apr 30

868
862 - 873

+14 (+1.64%)

May 1

882
876 - 887

+14 (+1.64%)

May 2

896
891 - 902

+15 (+1.64%)

May 3

911
905 - 917

+15 (+1.64%)

May 4

926
920 - 932

+15 (+1.64%)

Deaths by coronavirus

12Apr 245Apr 1529May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Latvia of about 9.01% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Latvia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5

-

Apr 16

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

9

+4 (+80%)

Apr 22

11

+2 (+22.2%)

Apr 23

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

12

+1 (+9.09%)

Apr 25

13
12 - 14

+1 (+10.6%)

Apr 26

14
13 - 16

+1 (+9.01%)

Apr 27

16
14 - 17

+1 (+9.01%)

Apr 28

17
16 - 19

+1 (+9.01%)

Apr 29

19
17 - 20

+2 (+9.01%)

Apr 30

20
19 - 22

+2 (+9.01%)

May 1

22
20 - 24

+2 (+9.01%)

May 2

24
22 - 26

+2 (+9.01%)

May 3

26
24 - 29

+2 (+9.01%)

May 4

29
26 - 31

+2 (+9.01%)

What is the mortality rate in Latvia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

770000004201Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Latvia, approx. 1.45% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 1,930,000 people in Latvia, that corresponds to about 77 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.5%1.5%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.7%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.9%2%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Latvia would be approx. 1.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Latvia?

Coronavirus infections

1.37%1.35%1.04%4.4%2.11%1.65%1.22%1.74%2.23%0.771%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Latvia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%80%22.2%0%9.09%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Latvia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Latvia develop?

High standardMedium standard3Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Latvia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (578 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (289 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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