Coronavirus in Kosovo

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Kosovo and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

510Apr 24387Apr 15510May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Kosovo of about -1.16e-9% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every -60,000,000,000 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Kosovo assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

387

-

Apr 16

449

+62 (+16%)

Apr 17

480

+31 (+6.9%)

Apr 18

510

+30 (+6.25%)

Apr 19

510

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

510

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

510

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

510

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

510

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

510

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-2.91e-9%)

Apr 26

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-1.16e-9%)

Apr 27

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-1.16e-9%)

Apr 28

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-1.16e-9%)

Apr 29

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-1.16e-9%)

Apr 30

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-1.16e-9%)

May 1

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-1.16e-9%)

May 2

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-1.16e-9%)

May 3

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-1.16e-9%)

May 4

510
510 - 510

+0 (+-1.16e-9%)

Deaths by coronavirus

12Apr 248Apr 1512May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Kosovo assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

8

-

Apr 16

11

+3 (+37.5%)

Apr 17

12

+1 (+9.09%)

Apr 18

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 26

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

May 1

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

May 2

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

May 3

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

May 4

12
12 - 12

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Kosovo?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

210310000000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Kosovo, approx. 0.42% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 1,850,000 people in Kosovo, that corresponds to about 21 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.7%3.1%3.1%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.8%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Kosovo would be approx. 2.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Kosovo?

Coronavirus infections

0%16%6.9%6.25%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Kosovo in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%37.5%9.09%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Kosovo in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Kosovo develop?

High standardMedium standard5Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Kosovo. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (554 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (277 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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