Coronavirus in Kenya

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Kenya and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

336Apr 24225Apr 15517May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Kenya of about 4.44% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 16 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Kenya assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

225

-

Apr 16

234

+9 (+4%)

Apr 17

246

+12 (+5.13%)

Apr 18

262

+16 (+6.5%)

Apr 19

270

+8 (+3.05%)

Apr 20

281

+11 (+4.07%)

Apr 21

296

+15 (+5.34%)

Apr 22

303

+7 (+2.36%)

Apr 23

320

+17 (+5.61%)

Apr 24

336

+16 (+5%)

Apr 25

349
344 - 355

+13 (+3.98%)

Apr 26

365
359 - 370

+16 (+4.44%)

Apr 27

381
375 - 387

+16 (+4.44%)

Apr 28

398
392 - 404

+17 (+4.44%)

Apr 29

416
409 - 422

+18 (+4.44%)

Apr 30

434
428 - 441

+18 (+4.44%)

May 1

454
447 - 460

+19 (+4.44%)

May 2

474
467 - 481

+20 (+4.44%)

May 3

495
487 - 502

+21 (+4.44%)

May 4

517
509 - 525

+22 (+4.44%)

Deaths by coronavirus

14Apr 2410Apr 1514May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Kenya assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

10

-

Apr 16

11

+1 (+10%)

Apr 17

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

12

+1 (+9.09%)

Apr 19

14

+2 (+16.7%)

Apr 20

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

14
14 - 14

+0 (+-2.22e-14%)

Apr 26

14
14 - 14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

14
14 - 14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

14
14 - 14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

14
14 - 14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

14
14 - 14

+0 (+0%)

May 1

14
14 - 14

+0 (+0%)

May 2

14
14 - 14

+0 (+0%)

May 3

14
14 - 14

+0 (+0%)

May 4

14
14 - 14

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Kenya?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

9861101200000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Kenya, approx. 0.7% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 51,400,000 people in Kenya, that corresponds to about 986 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4.2%4.4%4.6%4.7%5%5.2%5.3%5.7%6%6.2%6.5%6.7%7.1%7.3%7.4%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Kenya would be approx. 5.7%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Kenya?

Coronavirus infections

4.17%4%5.13%6.5%3.05%4.07%5.34%2.36%5.61%5%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Kenya in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

11.1%10%0%9.09%16.7%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Kenya in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Kenya develop?

High standardMedium standard3Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Kenya. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (15,400 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (7,710 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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