Coronavirus in Japan

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Japan and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

12,800Apr 248,100Apr 1521,100May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Japan of about 5.09% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 14 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Japan assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

8,100

-

Apr 16

8,630

+526 (+6.49%)

Apr 17

9,790

+1,160 (+13.5%)

Apr 18

10,300

+509 (+5.2%)

Apr 19

10,800

+501 (+4.87%)

Apr 20

10,800

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

11,100

+338 (+3.13%)

Apr 22

11,500

+377 (+3.39%)

Apr 23

12,400

+856 (+7.44%)

Apr 24

12,800

+461 (+3.73%)

Apr 25

13,500
13,300 - 13,700

+692 (+5.39%)

Apr 26

14,200
14,000 - 14,400

+688 (+5.09%)

Apr 27

14,900
14,700 - 15,200

+723 (+5.09%)

Apr 28

15,700
15,400 - 16,000

+760 (+5.09%)

Apr 29

16,500
16,200 - 16,800

+799 (+5.09%)

Apr 30

17,300
17,000 - 17,600

+840 (+5.09%)

May 1

18,200
17,900 - 18,500

+882 (+5.09%)

May 2

19,100
18,800 - 19,500

+927 (+5.09%)

May 3

20,100
19,800 - 20,500

+974 (+5.09%)

May 4

21,100
20,800 - 21,500

+1,020 (+5.09%)

Deaths by coronavirus

345Apr 24146Apr 15921May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Japan of about 10.2% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.2 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Japan assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

146

-

Apr 16

178

+32 (+21.9%)

Apr 17

190

+12 (+6.74%)

Apr 18

222

+32 (+16.8%)

Apr 19

236

+14 (+6.31%)

Apr 20

236

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

263

+27 (+11.4%)

Apr 22

281

+18 (+6.84%)

Apr 23

328

+47 (+16.7%)

Apr 24

345

+17 (+5.18%)

Apr 25

385
369 - 403

+40 (+11.7%)

Apr 26

424
406 - 443

+39 (+10.2%)

Apr 27

468
448 - 489

+43 (+10.2%)

Apr 28

515
493 - 538

+48 (+10.2%)

Apr 29

568
543 - 593

+52 (+10.2%)

Apr 30

625
599 - 653

+58 (+10.2%)

May 1

689
660 - 720

+64 (+10.2%)

May 2

759
727 - 793

+70 (+10.2%)

May 3

836
801 - 874

+77 (+10.2%)

May 4

921
882 - 963

+85 (+10.2%)

What is the mortality rate in Japan?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3,400332123214027184717Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Japan, approx. 0.98% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 127,000,000 people in Japan, that corresponds to about 3,400 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.7%2.8%3%3.1%3.2%3.2%3.4%3.5%4%4.3%4.5%4.7%5.1%5.7%6.2%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Japan would be approx. 3.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Japan?

Coronavirus infections

5.95%6.49%13.5%5.2%4.87%0%3.13%3.39%7.44%3.73%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Japan in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

2.1%21.9%6.74%16.8%6.31%0%11.4%6.84%16.7%5.18%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Japan in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Japan develop?

High standardMedium standard123Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Japan. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (38,000 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (19,000 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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