Coronavirus in Jamaica

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Jamaica and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

288Apr 24125Apr 15674May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Jamaica of about 9.04% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Jamaica assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

125

-

Apr 16

143

+18 (+14.4%)

Apr 17

143

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

163

+20 (+14%)

Apr 19

173

+10 (+6.13%)

Apr 20

223

+50 (+28.9%)

Apr 21

223

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

233

+10 (+4.48%)

Apr 23

257

+24 (+10.3%)

Apr 24

288

+31 (+12.1%)

Apr 25

309
298 - 321

+21 (+7.35%)

Apr 26

337
325 - 349

+28 (+9.04%)

Apr 27

368
355 - 381

+30 (+9.04%)

Apr 28

401
387 - 416

+33 (+9.04%)

Apr 29

437
422 - 453

+36 (+9.04%)

Apr 30

477
460 - 494

+40 (+9.04%)

May 1

520
501 - 539

+43 (+9.04%)

May 2

567
547 - 587

+47 (+9.04%)

May 3

618
596 - 641

+51 (+9.04%)

May 4

674
650 - 698

+56 (+9.04%)

Deaths by coronavirus

7Apr 245Apr 1511May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Jamaica of about 4.73% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 15 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Jamaica assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5

-

Apr 16

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

6

+1 (+20%)

Apr 22

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

7

+1 (+16.7%)

Apr 25

7
6 - 8

+0 (+-1.71e-9%)

Apr 26

7
7 - 8

+0 (+4.73%)

Apr 27

8
7 - 8

+0 (+4.73%)

Apr 28

8
7 - 9

+0 (+4.73%)

Apr 29

8
8 - 9

+0 (+4.73%)

Apr 30

9
8 - 10

+0 (+4.73%)

May 1

9
8 - 10

+0 (+4.73%)

May 2

10
9 - 11

+0 (+4.73%)

May 3

10
9 - 11

+0 (+4.73%)

May 4

11
10 - 12

+0 (+4.73%)

What is the mortality rate in Jamaica?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

541000001001Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Jamaica, approx. 0.667% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 2,930,000 people in Jamaica, that corresponds to about 54 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.4%2.7%3%3.1%3.1%4%4.3%4.9%4.9%5.6%9.6%9.6%10%11%11%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Jamaica would be approx. 4.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Jamaica?

Coronavirus infections

71.2%14.4%0%14%6.13%28.9%0%4.48%10.3%12.1%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Jamaica in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

25%0%0%0%0%0%20%0%0%16.7%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Jamaica in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Jamaica develop?

High standardMedium standard5Apr 25440Jun 18880Jun 26

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Jamaica. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (880 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (440 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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