Coronavirus in Italy

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Italy and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

193,000Apr 24165,000Apr 15226,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Italy of about 1.59% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 44 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Italy assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

165,000

-

Apr 16

169,000

+3,790 (+2.29%)

Apr 17

172,000

+3,490 (+2.07%)

Apr 18

176,000

+3,490 (+2.02%)

Apr 19

179,000

+3,050 (+1.73%)

Apr 20

181,000

+2,260 (+1.26%)

Apr 21

184,000

+2,730 (+1.51%)

Apr 22

187,000

+3,370 (+1.83%)

Apr 23

190,000

+2,650 (+1.41%)

Apr 24

193,000

+3,020 (+1.59%)

Apr 25

196,000
196,000 - 196,000

+3,130 (+1.62%)

Apr 26

199,000
199,000 - 200,000

+3,120 (+1.59%)

Apr 27

202,000
202,000 - 203,000

+3,170 (+1.59%)

Apr 28

206,000
205,000 - 206,000

+3,220 (+1.59%)

Apr 29

209,000
209,000 - 209,000

+3,270 (+1.59%)

Apr 30

212,000
212,000 - 213,000

+3,320 (+1.59%)

May 1

216,000
215,000 - 216,000

+3,380 (+1.59%)

May 2

219,000
219,000 - 219,000

+3,430 (+1.59%)

May 3

223,000
222,000 - 223,000

+3,490 (+1.59%)

May 4

226,000
226,000 - 226,000

+3,540 (+1.59%)

Deaths by coronavirus

26,000Apr 2421,600Apr 1530,900May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Italy of about 1.76% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 40 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Italy assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

21,600

-

Apr 16

22,200

+525 (+2.43%)

Apr 17

22,700

+575 (+2.59%)

Apr 18

23,200

+482 (+2.12%)

Apr 19

23,700

+433 (+1.86%)

Apr 20

24,100

+454 (+1.92%)

Apr 21

24,600

+534 (+2.21%)

Apr 22

25,100

+437 (+1.77%)

Apr 23

25,500

+464 (+1.85%)

Apr 24

26,000

+420 (+1.64%)

Apr 25

26,400
26,400 - 26,500

+470 (+1.81%)

Apr 26

26,900
26,900 - 26,900

+467 (+1.76%)

Apr 27

27,400
27,400 - 27,400

+475 (+1.76%)

Apr 28

27,900
27,800 - 27,900

+483 (+1.76%)

Apr 29

28,400
28,300 - 28,400

+492 (+1.76%)

Apr 30

28,900
28,800 - 28,900

+500 (+1.76%)

May 1

29,400
29,300 - 29,400

+509 (+1.76%)

May 2

29,900
29,900 - 29,900

+518 (+1.76%)

May 3

30,400
30,400 - 30,400

+527 (+1.76%)

May 4

30,900
30,900 - 31,000

+537 (+1.76%)

What is the mortality rate in Italy?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,720578525575482433454534437464420Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Italy, approx. 1.04% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 60,400,000 people in Italy, that corresponds to about 1,720 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

13%14%14%14%14%15%15%15%15%16%16%16%17%17%18%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Italy would be approx. 15%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Italy?

Coronavirus infections

1.64%2.29%2.07%2.02%1.73%1.26%1.51%1.83%1.41%1.59%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Italy in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

2.74%2.43%2.59%2.12%1.86%1.92%2.21%1.77%1.85%1.64%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Italy in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Italy develop?

High standardMedium standard732Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Italy. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (18,100 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (9,060 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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