Coronavirus in Israel

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Israel and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

15,100Apr 2412,500Apr 1519,500May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Israel of about 2.55% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 28 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Israel assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

12,500

-

Apr 16

12,800

+257 (+2.06%)

Apr 17

13,000

+224 (+1.76%)

Apr 18

13,300

+283 (+2.18%)

Apr 19

13,500

+226 (+1.7%)

Apr 20

13,700

+222 (+1.65%)

Apr 21

13,900

+229 (+1.67%)

Apr 22

14,500

+556 (+3.99%)

Apr 23

14,800

+305 (+2.1%)

Apr 24

15,100

+255 (+1.72%)

Apr 25

15,500
15,300 - 15,700

+458 (+3.04%)

Apr 26

15,900
15,700 - 16,100

+396 (+2.55%)

Apr 27

16,300
16,100 - 16,500

+406 (+2.55%)

Apr 28

16,700
16,500 - 16,900

+416 (+2.55%)

Apr 29

17,200
17,000 - 17,400

+427 (+2.55%)

Apr 30

17,600
17,400 - 17,800

+438 (+2.55%)

May 1

18,000
17,800 - 18,300

+449 (+2.55%)

May 2

18,500
18,300 - 18,700

+460 (+2.55%)

May 3

19,000
18,800 - 19,200

+472 (+2.55%)

May 4

19,500
19,200 - 19,700

+484 (+2.55%)

Deaths by coronavirus

194Apr 24130Apr 15232May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Israel of about 1.76% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 40 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Israel assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

130

-

Apr 16

142

+12 (+9.23%)

Apr 17

151

+9 (+6.34%)

Apr 18

164

+13 (+8.61%)

Apr 19

172

+8 (+4.88%)

Apr 20

177

+5 (+2.91%)

Apr 21

184

+7 (+3.95%)

Apr 22

189

+5 (+2.72%)

Apr 23

192

+3 (+1.59%)

Apr 24

194

+2 (+1.04%)

Apr 25

198
197 - 200

+4 (+2.15%)

Apr 26

202
200 - 203

+3 (+1.76%)

Apr 27

205
204 - 207

+4 (+1.76%)

Apr 28

209
207 - 211

+4 (+1.76%)

Apr 29

213
211 - 214

+4 (+1.76%)

Apr 30

216
214 - 218

+4 (+1.76%)

May 1

220
218 - 222

+4 (+1.76%)

May 2

224
222 - 226

+4 (+1.76%)

May 3

228
226 - 230

+4 (+1.76%)

May 4

232
230 - 234

+4 (+1.76%)

What is the mortality rate in Israel?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

135712913857532Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Israel, approx. 0.554% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 8,880,000 people in Israel, that corresponds to about 135 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.3%1.3%1.3%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.7%1.8%1.9%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Israel would be approx. 1.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Israel?

Coronavirus infections

3.78%2.06%1.76%2.18%1.7%1.65%1.67%3.99%2.1%1.72%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Israel in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

5.69%9.23%6.34%8.61%4.88%2.91%3.95%2.72%1.59%1.04%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Israel in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Israel develop?

High standardMedium standard79Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Israel. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,670 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,330 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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