Coronavirus in Ireland

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Ireland and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

18,200Apr 2412,500Apr 1528,100May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Ireland of about 4.4% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 16 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Ireland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

12,500

-

Apr 16

13,300

+724 (+5.77%)

Apr 17

14,000

+709 (+5.34%)

Apr 18

14,800

+778 (+5.57%)

Apr 19

15,300

+493 (+3.34%)

Apr 20

15,700

+401 (+2.63%)

Apr 21

16,000

+388 (+2.48%)

Apr 22

16,700

+631 (+3.93%)

Apr 23

17,600

+936 (+5.61%)

Apr 24

18,200

+577 (+3.28%)

Apr 25

19,100
18,900 - 19,200

+868 (+4.77%)

Apr 26

19,900
19,700 - 20,100

+839 (+4.4%)

Apr 27

20,800
20,600 - 21,000

+876 (+4.4%)

Apr 28

21,700
21,500 - 21,900

+915 (+4.4%)

Apr 29

22,600
22,400 - 22,800

+955 (+4.4%)

Apr 30

23,600
23,400 - 23,900

+997 (+4.4%)

May 1

24,700
24,400 - 24,900

+1,040 (+4.4%)

May 2

25,800
25,500 - 26,000

+1,090 (+4.4%)

May 3

26,900
26,600 - 27,100

+1,130 (+4.4%)

May 4

28,100
27,800 - 28,300

+1,180 (+4.4%)

Deaths by coronavirus

1,010Apr 24444Apr 152,640May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Ireland of about 10.7% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Ireland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

444

-

Apr 16

486

+42 (+9.46%)

Apr 17

530

+44 (+9.05%)

Apr 18

571

+41 (+7.74%)

Apr 19

610

+39 (+6.83%)

Apr 20

687

+77 (+12.6%)

Apr 21

730

+43 (+6.26%)

Apr 22

769

+39 (+5.34%)

Apr 23

794

+25 (+3.25%)

Apr 24

1,010

+220 (+27.7%)

Apr 25

1,060
948 - 1,180

+44 (+4.29%)

Apr 26

1,170
1,050 - 1,310

+113 (+10.7%)

Apr 27

1,300
1,160 - 1,450

+125 (+10.7%)

Apr 28

1,440
1,290 - 1,600

+139 (+10.7%)

Apr 29

1,590
1,420 - 1,770

+154 (+10.7%)

Apr 30

1,760
1,580 - 1,960

+170 (+10.7%)

May 1

1,950
1,750 - 2,170

+188 (+10.7%)

May 2

2,160
1,930 - 2,410

+209 (+10.7%)

May 3

2,390
2,140 - 2,660

+231 (+10.7%)

May 4

2,640
2,370 - 2,950

+256 (+10.7%)

What is the mortality rate in Ireland?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

86384244413977433925220Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Ireland, approx. 0.645% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 4,850,000 people in Ireland, that corresponds to about 86 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

5.6%5.8%6.1%6.3%6.5%6.6%6.9%7.3%7.6%8.1%8.8%9.5%11%11%13%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Ireland would be approx. 7.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Ireland?

Coronavirus infections

9.3%5.77%5.34%5.57%3.34%2.63%2.48%3.93%5.61%3.28%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Ireland in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

9.36%9.46%9.05%7.74%6.83%12.6%6.26%5.34%3.25%27.7%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Ireland in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Ireland develop?

High standardMedium standard168Apr 25728May 311,460Jun 16

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Ireland. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,460 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (728 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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