Coronavirus in Iraq

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Iraq and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,710Apr 241,420Apr 152,130May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Iraq of about 2.22% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 32 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Iraq assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,420

-

Apr 16

1,430

+19 (+1.34%)

Apr 17

1,480

+48 (+3.35%)

Apr 18

1,510

+31 (+2.09%)

Apr 19

1,540

+26 (+1.72%)

Apr 20

1,570

+35 (+2.27%)

Apr 21

1,600

+28 (+1.78%)

Apr 22

1,630

+29 (+1.81%)

Apr 23

1,680

+46 (+2.82%)

Apr 24

1,710

+31 (+1.85%)

Apr 25

1,750
1,740 - 1,760

+40 (+2.31%)

Apr 26

1,790
1,780 - 1,790

+39 (+2.22%)

Apr 27

1,830
1,820 - 1,830

+40 (+2.22%)

Apr 28

1,870
1,860 - 1,870

+41 (+2.22%)

Apr 29

1,910
1,900 - 1,920

+42 (+2.22%)

Apr 30

1,950
1,940 - 1,960

+42 (+2.22%)

May 1

1,990
1,990 - 2,000

+43 (+2.22%)

May 2

2,040
2,030 - 2,050

+44 (+2.22%)

May 3

2,080
2,070 - 2,090

+45 (+2.22%)

May 4

2,130
2,120 - 2,140

+46 (+2.22%)

Deaths by coronavirus

86Apr 2479Apr 1595May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Iraq of about 1.07% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 65 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Iraq assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

79

-

Apr 16

80

+1 (+1.27%)

Apr 17

81

+1 (+1.25%)

Apr 18

82

+1 (+1.23%)

Apr 19

82

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

82

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

83

+1 (+1.22%)

Apr 22

83

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

83

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

86

+3 (+3.61%)

Apr 25

86
84 - 88

+0 (+2.13e-9%)

Apr 26

87
85 - 89

+0 (+1.07%)

Apr 27

88
86 - 90

+0 (+1.07%)

Apr 28

89
87 - 91

+0 (+1.07%)

Apr 29

90
88 - 92

+0 (+1.07%)

Apr 30

91
89 - 92

+0 (+1.07%)

May 1

92
90 - 93

+0 (+1.07%)

May 2

93
91 - 94

+0 (+1.07%)

May 3

94
92 - 95

+0 (+1.07%)

May 4

95
93 - 97

+1 (+1.07%)

What is the mortality rate in Iraq?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

4811111001003Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Iraq, approx. 0.457% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 38,400,000 people in Iraq, that corresponds to about 481 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

5%5.1%5.3%5.4%5.5%5.6%5.7%5.8%6%6.1%6.1%6.2%6.4%6.5%6.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Iraq would be approx. 5.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Iraq?

Coronavirus infections

1.07%1.34%3.35%2.09%1.72%2.27%1.78%1.81%2.82%1.85%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Iraq in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

1.28%1.27%1.25%1.23%0%0%1.22%0%0%3.61%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Iraq in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Iraq develop?

High standardMedium standard7Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Iraq. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (11,500 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,770 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy