Coronavirus in Iran, Islamic Republic of

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Iran, Islamic Republic of and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

88,200Apr 2476,400Apr 15100,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Iran, Islamic Republic of of about 1.3% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 53 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Iran, Islamic Republic of assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

76,400

-

Apr 16

78,000

+1,610 (+2.1%)

Apr 17

79,500

+1,500 (+1.92%)

Apr 18

80,900

+1,370 (+1.73%)

Apr 19

82,200

+1,340 (+1.66%)

Apr 20

83,500

+1,290 (+1.57%)

Apr 21

84,800

+1,300 (+1.55%)

Apr 22

86,000

+1,190 (+1.41%)

Apr 23

87,000

+1,030 (+1.2%)

Apr 24

88,200

+1,170 (+1.34%)

Apr 25

89,300
89,300 - 89,400

+1,150 (+1.3%)

Apr 26

90,500
90,400 - 90,600

+1,170 (+1.3%)

Apr 27

91,700
91,600 - 91,800

+1,180 (+1.3%)

Apr 28

92,900
92,800 - 93,000

+1,200 (+1.3%)

Apr 29

94,100
94,000 - 94,200

+1,210 (+1.3%)

Apr 30

95,300
95,200 - 95,400

+1,230 (+1.3%)

May 1

96,600
96,500 - 96,600

+1,240 (+1.3%)

May 2

97,800
97,700 - 97,900

+1,260 (+1.3%)

May 3

99,100
99,000 - 99,200

+1,280 (+1.3%)

May 4

100,000
100,000 - 100,000

+1,290 (+1.3%)

Deaths by coronavirus

5,570Apr 244,780Apr 156,600May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Iran, Islamic Republic of of about 1.71% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 41 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Iran, Islamic Republic of assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

4,780

-

Apr 16

4,870

+92 (+1.93%)

Apr 17

4,960

+89 (+1.83%)

Apr 18

5,030

+73 (+1.47%)

Apr 19

5,120

+87 (+1.73%)

Apr 20

5,210

+91 (+1.78%)

Apr 21

5,300

+88 (+1.69%)

Apr 22

5,390

+94 (+1.77%)

Apr 23

5,480

+90 (+1.67%)

Apr 24

5,570

+93 (+1.7%)

Apr 25

5,670
5,670 - 5,670

+96 (+1.72%)

Apr 26

5,770
5,760 - 5,770

+97 (+1.71%)

Apr 27

5,870
5,860 - 5,870

+99 (+1.71%)

Apr 28

5,970
5,960 - 5,970

+100 (+1.71%)

Apr 29

6,070
6,060 - 6,070

+102 (+1.71%)

Apr 30

6,170
6,170 - 6,170

+104 (+1.71%)

May 1

6,280
6,270 - 6,280

+105 (+1.71%)

May 2

6,380
6,380 - 6,390

+107 (+1.71%)

May 3

6,490
6,490 - 6,500

+109 (+1.71%)

May 4

6,600
6,600 - 6,610

+111 (+1.71%)

What is the mortality rate in Iran, Islamic Republic of?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,33094928973879188949093Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Iran, Islamic Republic of, approx. 0.594% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 81,800,000 people in Iran, Islamic Republic of, that corresponds to about 1,330 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

6.3%6.4%6.5%6.6%6.7%6.8%6.9%7%7.1%7.3%7.4%7.6%7.8%8%8.2%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Iran, Islamic Republic of would be approx. 7%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Iran, Islamic Republic of?

Coronavirus infections

2.02%2.1%1.92%1.73%1.66%1.57%1.55%1.41%1.2%1.34%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Iran, Islamic Republic of in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

2.01%1.93%1.83%1.47%1.73%1.78%1.69%1.77%1.67%1.7%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Iran, Islamic Republic of in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Iran, Islamic Republic of develop?

High standardMedium standard321Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Iran, Islamic Republic of. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (24,500 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (12,300 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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