Coronavirus in Indonesia

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Indonesia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

8,210Apr 245,140Apr 1513,100May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Indonesia of about 4.8% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 15 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Indonesia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5,140

-

Apr 16

5,520

+380 (+7.4%)

Apr 17

5,920

+407 (+7.38%)

Apr 18

6,250

+325 (+5.49%)

Apr 19

6,580

+327 (+5.23%)

Apr 20

6,760

+185 (+2.81%)

Apr 21

7,140

+375 (+5.55%)

Apr 22

7,420

+283 (+3.97%)

Apr 23

7,780

+357 (+4.81%)

Apr 24

8,210

+436 (+5.61%)

Apr 25

8,570
8,500 - 8,640

+360 (+4.39%)

Apr 26

8,980
8,910 - 9,050

+411 (+4.8%)

Apr 27

9,410
9,340 - 9,490

+431 (+4.8%)

Apr 28

9,860
9,790 - 9,940

+451 (+4.8%)

Apr 29

10,300
10,300 - 10,400

+473 (+4.8%)

Apr 30

10,800
10,700 - 10,900

+496 (+4.8%)

May 1

11,400
11,300 - 11,400

+519 (+4.8%)

May 2

11,900
11,800 - 12,000

+544 (+4.8%)

May 3

12,500
12,400 - 12,600

+571 (+4.8%)

May 4

13,100
13,000 - 13,200

+598 (+4.8%)

Deaths by coronavirus

689Apr 24469Apr 15972May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Indonesia of about 3.61% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 20 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Indonesia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

469

-

Apr 16

496

+27 (+5.76%)

Apr 17

520

+24 (+4.84%)

Apr 18

535

+15 (+2.88%)

Apr 19

582

+47 (+8.79%)

Apr 20

590

+8 (+1.37%)

Apr 21

616

+26 (+4.41%)

Apr 22

635

+19 (+3.08%)

Apr 23

647

+12 (+1.89%)

Apr 24

689

+42 (+6.49%)

Apr 25

706
692 - 721

+17 (+2.49%)

Apr 26

732
717 - 747

+25 (+3.61%)

Apr 27

758
743 - 774

+26 (+3.61%)

Apr 28

785
769 - 802

+27 (+3.61%)

Apr 29

814
797 - 831

+28 (+3.61%)

Apr 30

843
826 - 861

+29 (+3.61%)

May 1

874
856 - 892

+30 (+3.61%)

May 2

905
887 - 924

+32 (+3.61%)

May 3

938
919 - 957

+33 (+3.61%)

May 4

972
952 - 992

+34 (+3.61%)

What is the mortality rate in Indonesia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

4,6501027241547826191242Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Indonesia, approx. 0.634% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 268,000,000 people in Indonesia, that corresponds to about 4,650 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

8.4%8.9%9.3%9.7%10%10%11%12%12%13%14%15%16%18%20%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Indonesia would be approx. 12%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Indonesia?

Coronavirus infections

6.14%7.4%7.38%5.49%5.23%2.81%5.55%3.97%4.81%5.61%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Indonesia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

2.18%5.76%4.84%2.88%8.79%1.37%4.41%3.08%1.89%6.49%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Indonesia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Indonesia develop?

High standardMedium standard80Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Indonesia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (80,300 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (40,100 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy