Coronavirus in India

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in India and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

24,500Apr 2412,300Apr 1548,400May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in India of about 7.01% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 10 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in India assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

12,300

-

Apr 16

13,400

+1,110 (+8.99%)

Apr 17

14,400

+922 (+6.87%)

Apr 18

15,700

+1,370 (+9.55%)

Apr 19

17,600

+1,890 (+12%)

Apr 20

18,500

+924 (+5.25%)

Apr 21

20,100

+1,540 (+8.31%)

Apr 22

21,400

+1,290 (+6.42%)

Apr 23

23,100

+1,710 (+7.99%)

Apr 24

24,500

+1,450 (+6.3%)

Apr 25

26,300
26,100 - 26,500

+1,770 (+7.2%)

Apr 26

28,100
27,900 - 28,300

+1,840 (+7.01%)

Apr 27

30,100
29,900 - 30,300

+1,970 (+7.01%)

Apr 28

32,200
32,000 - 32,400

+2,110 (+7.01%)

Apr 29

34,500
34,200 - 34,700

+2,260 (+7.01%)

Apr 30

36,900
36,600 - 37,100

+2,420 (+7.01%)

May 1

39,500
39,200 - 39,800

+2,590 (+7.01%)

May 2

42,300
42,000 - 42,500

+2,770 (+7.01%)

May 3

45,200
44,900 - 45,500

+2,960 (+7.01%)

May 4

48,400
48,100 - 48,700

+3,170 (+7.01%)

Deaths by coronavirus

780Apr 24405Apr 151,450May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in India of about 6.47% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 11 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in India assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

405

-

Apr 16

448

+43 (+10.6%)

Apr 17

486

+38 (+8.48%)

Apr 18

521

+35 (+7.2%)

Apr 19

559

+38 (+7.29%)

Apr 20

592

+33 (+5.9%)

Apr 21

645

+53 (+8.95%)

Apr 22

681

+36 (+5.58%)

Apr 23

721

+40 (+5.87%)

Apr 24

780

+59 (+8.18%)

Apr 25

825
814 - 835

+45 (+5.73%)

Apr 26

878
867 - 889

+53 (+6.47%)

Apr 27

935
923 - 947

+57 (+6.47%)

Apr 28

995
983 - 1,010

+61 (+6.47%)

Apr 29

1,060
1,050 - 1,070

+64 (+6.47%)

Apr 30

1,130
1,110 - 1,140

+69 (+6.47%)

May 1

1,200
1,190 - 1,220

+73 (+6.47%)

May 2

1,280
1,260 - 1,300

+78 (+6.47%)

May 3

1,360
1,340 - 1,380

+83 (+6.47%)

May 4

1,450
1,430 - 1,470

+88 (+6.47%)

What is the mortality rate in India?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

27,20012433835383353364059Apr 15Apr 24)}

In India, approx. 0.735% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 1,350,000,000 people in India, that corresponds to about 27,200 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

3.2%3.4%3.6%3.9%4.2%4.4%5%5.4%5.8%6.3%6.8%7.5%8.5%9.2%10%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in India would be approx. 5.4%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in India?

Coronavirus infections

7.27%8.99%6.87%9.55%12%5.25%8.31%6.42%7.99%6.3%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in India in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

3.05%10.6%8.48%7.2%7.29%5.9%8.95%5.58%5.87%8.18%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in India in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in India develop?

High standardMedium standard317Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in India. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (406,000 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (203,000 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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