Coronavirus in Hungary

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Hungary and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

2,440Apr 241,580Apr 154,030May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Hungary of about 5.22% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 14 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Hungary assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,580

-

Apr 16

1,650

+73 (+4.62%)

Apr 17

1,760

+111 (+6.72%)

Apr 18

1,830

+71 (+4.03%)

Apr 19

1,920

+82 (+4.47%)

Apr 20

1,980

+68 (+3.55%)

Apr 21

2,100

+114 (+5.75%)

Apr 22

2,170

+70 (+3.34%)

Apr 23

2,280

+116 (+5.35%)

Apr 24

2,440

+159 (+6.96%)

Apr 25

2,550
2,510 - 2,590

+106 (+4.34%)

Apr 26

2,680
2,640 - 2,730

+133 (+5.22%)

Apr 27

2,820
2,770 - 2,870

+140 (+5.22%)

Apr 28

2,970
2,920 - 3,020

+147 (+5.22%)

Apr 29

3,120
3,070 - 3,180

+155 (+5.22%)

Apr 30

3,290
3,230 - 3,340

+163 (+5.22%)

May 1

3,460
3,400 - 3,520

+172 (+5.22%)

May 2

3,640
3,580 - 3,700

+181 (+5.22%)

May 3

3,830
3,760 - 3,900

+190 (+5.22%)

May 4

4,030
3,960 - 4,100

+200 (+5.22%)

Deaths by coronavirus

262Apr 24134Apr 15512May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Hungary of about 7.05% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 10 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Hungary assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

134

-

Apr 16

142

+8 (+5.97%)

Apr 17

156

+14 (+9.86%)

Apr 18

172

+16 (+10.3%)

Apr 19

189

+17 (+9.88%)

Apr 20

199

+10 (+5.29%)

Apr 21

213

+14 (+7.04%)

Apr 22

225

+12 (+5.63%)

Apr 23

239

+14 (+6.22%)

Apr 24

262

+23 (+9.62%)

Apr 25

278
272 - 283

+16 (+5.93%)

Apr 26

297
291 - 303

+20 (+7.05%)

Apr 27

318
312 - 324

+21 (+7.05%)

Apr 28

340
334 - 347

+22 (+7.05%)

Apr 29

365
357 - 372

+24 (+7.05%)

Apr 30

390
383 - 398

+26 (+7.05%)

May 1

418
410 - 426

+28 (+7.05%)

May 2

447
439 - 456

+29 (+7.05%)

May 3

479
470 - 488

+32 (+7.05%)

May 4

512
503 - 523

+34 (+7.05%)

What is the mortality rate in Hungary?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3431281416171014121423Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Hungary, approx. 1.28% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 9,770,000 people in Hungary, that corresponds to about 343 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

11%11%12%12%13%14%14%15%16%17%17%18%19%20%22%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Hungary would be approx. 15%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Hungary?

Coronavirus infections

4.43%4.62%6.72%4.03%4.47%3.55%5.75%3.34%5.35%6.96%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Hungary in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

9.84%5.97%9.86%10.3%9.88%5.29%7.04%5.63%6.22%9.62%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Hungary in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Hungary develop?

High standardMedium standard22Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Hungary. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,930 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,470 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy