Coronavirus in Honduras

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Honduras and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

591Apr 24419Apr 15999May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Honduras of about 5.71% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 12 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Honduras assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

419

-

Apr 16

426

+7 (+1.67%)

Apr 17

442

+16 (+3.76%)

Apr 18

457

+15 (+3.39%)

Apr 19

472

+15 (+3.28%)

Apr 20

477

+5 (+1.06%)

Apr 21

494

+17 (+3.56%)

Apr 22

510

+16 (+3.24%)

Apr 23

519

+9 (+1.76%)

Apr 24

591

+72 (+13.9%)

Apr 25

606
572 - 641

+15 (+2.5%)

Apr 26

640
605 - 678

+35 (+5.71%)

Apr 27

677
640 - 716

+37 (+5.71%)

Apr 28

716
676 - 757

+39 (+5.71%)

Apr 29

756
715 - 801

+41 (+5.71%)

Apr 30

800
756 - 846

+43 (+5.71%)

May 1

845
799 - 895

+46 (+5.71%)

May 2

894
844 - 946

+48 (+5.71%)

May 3

945
893 - 1,000

+51 (+5.71%)

May 4

999
944 - 1,060

+54 (+5.71%)

Deaths by coronavirus

55Apr 2431Apr 1592May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Honduras of about 5.73% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 12 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Honduras assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

31

-

Apr 16

35

+4 (+12.9%)

Apr 17

41

+6 (+17.1%)

Apr 18

46

+5 (+12.2%)

Apr 19

46

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

46

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

46

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

46

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

47

+1 (+2.17%)

Apr 24

55

+8 (+17%)

Apr 25

56
51 - 60

+0 (+1.08%)

Apr 26

59
54 - 64

+3 (+5.73%)

Apr 27

62
57 - 68

+3 (+5.73%)

Apr 28

66
61 - 71

+4 (+5.73%)

Apr 29

69
64 - 75

+4 (+5.73%)

Apr 30

73
68 - 80

+4 (+5.73%)

May 1

78
72 - 84

+4 (+5.73%)

May 2

82
76 - 89

+4 (+5.73%)

May 3

87
80 - 94

+5 (+5.73%)

May 4

92
85 - 100

+5 (+5.73%)

What is the mortality rate in Honduras?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1355465000018Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Honduras, approx. 0.513% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 9,590,000 people in Honduras, that corresponds to about 135 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

9.3%11%11%11%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%14%14%14%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Honduras would be approx. 12%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Honduras?

Coronavirus infections

2.95%1.67%3.76%3.39%3.28%1.06%3.56%3.24%1.76%13.9%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Honduras in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

19.2%12.9%17.1%12.2%0%0%0%0%2.17%17%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Honduras in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Honduras develop?

High standardMedium standard4Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Honduras. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,880 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,440 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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