Coronavirus in Haiti

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Haiti and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

72Apr 2441Apr 15174May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Haiti of about 8.88% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8.2 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Haiti assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

41

-

Apr 16

41

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

43

+2 (+4.88%)

Apr 18

44

+1 (+2.33%)

Apr 19

47

+3 (+6.82%)

Apr 20

57

+10 (+21.3%)

Apr 21

57

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

62

+5 (+8.77%)

Apr 23

72

+10 (+16.1%)

Apr 24

72

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

81
76 - 86

+9 (+12.4%)

Apr 26

88
83 - 94

+7 (+8.88%)

Apr 27

96
90 - 102

+8 (+8.88%)

Apr 28

104
98 - 111

+9 (+8.88%)

Apr 29

114
107 - 121

+9 (+8.88%)

Apr 30

124
116 - 132

+10 (+8.88%)

May 1

135
126 - 144

+11 (+8.88%)

May 2

147
138 - 156

+12 (+8.88%)

May 3

160
150 - 170

+13 (+8.88%)

May 4

174
163 - 185

+14 (+8.88%)

Deaths by coronavirus

6Apr 243Apr 1562May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Haiti of about 25.9% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 3 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Haiti assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3

-

Apr 16

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

4

+1 (+33.3%)

Apr 23

5

+1 (+25%)

Apr 24

6

+1 (+20%)

Apr 25

8
7 - 8

+2 (+29.1%)

Apr 26

10
9 - 10

+2 (+25.9%)

Apr 27

12
12 - 13

+3 (+25.9%)

Apr 28

15
15 - 16

+3 (+25.9%)

Apr 29

19
18 - 21

+4 (+25.9%)

Apr 30

24
23 - 26

+5 (+25.9%)

May 1

31
29 - 33

+6 (+25.9%)

May 2

39
37 - 41

+8 (+25.9%)

May 3

49
46 - 52

+10 (+25.9%)

May 4

62
58 - 65

+13 (+25.9%)

What is the mortality rate in Haiti?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2410000000111Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Haiti, approx. 0.791% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 11,100,000 people in Haiti, that corresponds to about 241 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

8.3%8.3%9.7%11%11%13%14%14%15%15%15%15%18%18%19%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Haiti would be approx. 14%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Haiti?

Coronavirus infections

2.5%0%4.88%2.33%6.82%21.3%0%8.77%16.1%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Haiti in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%33.3%25%20%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Haiti in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Haiti develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Haiti. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,340 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,670 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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