Coronavirus in Guinea

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Guinea and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

954Apr 24404Apr 152,890May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Guinea of about 11.7% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.3 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Guinea assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

404

-

Apr 16

438

+34 (+8.42%)

Apr 17

477

+39 (+8.9%)

Apr 18

518

+41 (+8.6%)

Apr 19

579

+61 (+11.8%)

Apr 20

622

+43 (+7.43%)

Apr 21

688

+66 (+10.6%)

Apr 22

761

+73 (+10.6%)

Apr 23

862

+101 (+13.3%)

Apr 24

954

+92 (+10.7%)

Apr 25

1,070
1,060 - 1,080

+114 (+11.9%)

Apr 26

1,190
1,180 - 1,210

+125 (+11.7%)

Apr 27

1,330
1,320 - 1,350

+139 (+11.7%)

Apr 28

1,490
1,470 - 1,500

+156 (+11.7%)

Apr 29

1,660
1,640 - 1,680

+174 (+11.7%)

Apr 30

1,860
1,840 - 1,880

+194 (+11.7%)

May 1

2,070
2,050 - 2,090

+217 (+11.7%)

May 2

2,310
2,290 - 2,340

+242 (+11.7%)

May 3

2,590
2,560 - 2,610

+271 (+11.7%)

May 4

2,890
2,860 - 2,920

+302 (+11.7%)

Deaths by coronavirus

6Apr 241Apr 156May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Guinea assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1

-

Apr 16

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

3

+2 (+200%)

Apr 18

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

5

+2 (+66.7%)

Apr 20

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

6

+1 (+20%)

Apr 22

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 26

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

May 1

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

May 2

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

May 3

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

May 4

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Guinea?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3061020201000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Guinea, approx. 0.9% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 12,400,000 people in Guinea, that corresponds to about 306 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.63%0.7%0.79%0.87%0.96%1%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.4%2.4%2.8%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Guinea would be approx. 1.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Guinea?

Coronavirus infections

11.3%8.42%8.9%8.6%11.8%7.43%10.6%10.6%13.3%10.7%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Guinea in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

In,fin,ity%0%200%0%66.7%0%20%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Guinea in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Guinea develop?

High standardMedium standard15Apr 251,860Jun 73,720Jun 13

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Guinea. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,720 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,860 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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