Coronavirus in Guatemala

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Guatemala and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

430Apr 24180Apr 151,630May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Guatemala of about 14.3% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 5.2 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Guatemala assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

180

-

Apr 16

196

+16 (+8.89%)

Apr 17

214

+18 (+9.18%)

Apr 18

235

+21 (+9.81%)

Apr 19

257

+22 (+9.36%)

Apr 20

289

+32 (+12.5%)

Apr 21

294

+5 (+1.73%)

Apr 22

316

+22 (+7.48%)

Apr 23

384

+68 (+21.5%)

Apr 24

430

+46 (+12%)

Apr 25

491
467 - 517

+61 (+14.3%)

Apr 26

562
534 - 591

+70 (+14.3%)

Apr 27

642
611 - 675

+80 (+14.3%)

Apr 28

734
698 - 771

+92 (+14.3%)

Apr 29

838
797 - 882

+105 (+14.3%)

Apr 30

958
911 - 1,010

+120 (+14.3%)

May 1

1,100
1,040 - 1,150

+137 (+14.3%)

May 2

1,250
1,190 - 1,320

+156 (+14.3%)

May 3

1,430
1,360 - 1,500

+179 (+14.3%)

May 4

1,630
1,550 - 1,720

+204 (+14.3%)

Deaths by coronavirus

11Apr 245Apr 1562May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Guatemala of about 18.2% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 4.1 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Guatemala assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5

-

Apr 16

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

7

+2 (+40%)

Apr 18

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

8

+1 (+14.3%)

Apr 23

11

+3 (+37.5%)

Apr 24

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

14
12 - 16

+3 (+25.4%)

Apr 26

16
14 - 19

+3 (+18.2%)

Apr 27

19
17 - 22

+3 (+18.2%)

Apr 28

23
20 - 26

+4 (+18.2%)

Apr 29

27
24 - 31

+4 (+18.2%)

Apr 30

32
28 - 36

+5 (+18.2%)

May 1

38
33 - 43

+6 (+18.2%)

May 2

45
39 - 51

+7 (+18.2%)

May 3

53
46 - 60

+8 (+18.2%)

May 4

62
55 - 71

+10 (+18.2%)

What is the mortality rate in Guatemala?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2280020000130Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Guatemala, approx. 0.482% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 17,200,000 people in Guatemala, that corresponds to about 228 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.6%2.9%3.5%3.7%3.8%4.3%4.7%5.1%5.6%6.1%6.6%7.1%7.1%8%8.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Guatemala would be approx. 5.1%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Guatemala?

Coronavirus infections

7.78%8.89%9.18%9.81%9.36%12.5%1.73%7.48%21.5%12%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Guatemala in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%40%0%0%0%0%14.3%37.5%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Guatemala in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Guatemala develop?

High standardMedium standard7Apr 252,590Jun 75,170Jun 12

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Guatemala. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,170 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,590 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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