Coronavirus in Guadeloupe

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Guadeloupe and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

56Mar 221Mar 13343Apr 1

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Guadeloupe of about 19.1% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 4 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Guadeloupe assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

1

-

Mar 14

1

+0 (+0%)

Mar 15

3

+2 (+200%)

Mar 16

6

+3 (+100%)

Mar 17

18

+12 (+200%)

Mar 18

27

+9 (+50%)

Mar 19

33

+6 (+22.2%)

Mar 20

45

+12 (+36.4%)

Mar 21

53

+8 (+17.8%)

Mar 22

56

+3 (+5.66%)

Mar 23

71
62 - 81

+15 (+26.7%)

Mar 24

85
74 - 96

+14 (+19.1%)

Mar 25

101
89 - 114

+16 (+19.1%)

Mar 26

120
106 - 136

+19 (+19.1%)

Mar 27

143
126 - 162

+23 (+19.1%)

Mar 28

170
150 - 193

+27 (+19.1%)

Mar 29

203
178 - 230

+33 (+19.1%)

Mar 30

242
213 - 275

+39 (+19.1%)

Mar 31

288
253 - 327

+46 (+19.1%)

Apr 1

343
302 - 390

+55 (+19.1%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Mar 220Mar 13

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Guadeloupe assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

0

-

Mar 14

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 15

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 22

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Guadeloupe?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

9000000000Mar 14Mar 22)}

In Guadeloupe, approx. 0.71% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 443,000 people in Guadeloupe, that corresponds to about 9 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days9 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Guadeloupe would be approx. 0%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Guadeloupe?

Coronavirus infections

0%200%100%200%50%22.2%36.4%17.8%5.66%Mar 14Mar 22)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Guadeloupe in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Mar 14Mar 22)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Guadeloupe in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Guadeloupe develop?

High standardMedium standard1Mar 2366Apr 14133Apr 18

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Guadeloupe. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (133 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (66 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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