Coronavirus in Greece

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Greece and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

2,490Apr 242,190Apr 152,840May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Greece of about 1.33% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 53 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Greece assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

2,190

-

Apr 16

2,210

+15 (+0.684%)

Apr 17

2,220

+17 (+0.77%)

Apr 18

2,240

+11 (+0.495%)

Apr 19

2,240

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

2,250

+10 (+0.447%)

Apr 21

2,400

+156 (+6.95%)

Apr 22

2,410

+7 (+0.292%)

Apr 23

2,460

+55 (+2.28%)

Apr 24

2,490

+27 (+1.1%)

Apr 25

2,520
2,500 - 2,540

+32 (+1.28%)

Apr 26

2,560
2,530 - 2,580

+33 (+1.33%)

Apr 27

2,590
2,570 - 2,610

+34 (+1.33%)

Apr 28

2,620
2,600 - 2,640

+34 (+1.33%)

Apr 29

2,660
2,640 - 2,680

+35 (+1.33%)

Apr 30

2,690
2,670 - 2,720

+35 (+1.33%)

May 1

2,730
2,710 - 2,750

+36 (+1.33%)

May 2

2,770
2,740 - 2,790

+36 (+1.33%)

May 3

2,800
2,780 - 2,830

+37 (+1.33%)

May 4

2,840
2,820 - 2,860

+37 (+1.33%)

Deaths by coronavirus

130Apr 24102Apr 15165May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Greece of about 2.51% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 28 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Greece assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

102

-

Apr 16

105

+3 (+2.94%)

Apr 17

108

+3 (+2.86%)

Apr 18

110

+2 (+1.85%)

Apr 19

113

+3 (+2.73%)

Apr 20

116

+3 (+2.65%)

Apr 21

121

+5 (+4.31%)

Apr 22

121

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

125

+4 (+3.31%)

Apr 24

130

+5 (+4%)

Apr 25

132
129 - 135

+2 (+1.64%)

Apr 26

135
133 - 138

+3 (+2.51%)

Apr 27

139
136 - 142

+3 (+2.51%)

Apr 28

142
139 - 145

+3 (+2.51%)

Apr 29

146
143 - 149

+4 (+2.51%)

Apr 30

150
147 - 153

+4 (+2.51%)

May 1

153
150 - 156

+4 (+2.51%)

May 2

157
154 - 160

+4 (+2.51%)

May 3

161
158 - 164

+4 (+2.51%)

May 4

165
162 - 169

+4 (+2.51%)

What is the mortality rate in Greece?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3321332335045Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Greece, approx. 1.13% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 10,700,000 people in Greece, that corresponds to about 332 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

5.2%5.3%5.4%5.4%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.9%5.9%6%6.1%6.1%6.2%6.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Greece would be approx. 5.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Greece?

Coronavirus infections

1.01%0.684%0.77%0.495%0%0.447%6.95%0.292%2.28%1.1%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Greece in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0.99%2.94%2.86%1.85%2.73%2.65%4.31%0%3.31%4%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Greece in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Greece develop?

High standardMedium standard8Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Greece. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,220 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,610 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy