Coronavirus in Gabon

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Gabon and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

172Apr 2480Apr 15233May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Gabon of about 3.03% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 23 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Gabon assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

80

-

Apr 16

80

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

108

+28 (+35%)

Apr 18

108

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

109

+1 (+0.926%)

Apr 20

120

+11 (+10.1%)

Apr 21

156

+36 (+30%)

Apr 22

166

+10 (+6.41%)

Apr 23

167

+1 (+0.602%)

Apr 24

172

+5 (+2.99%)

Apr 25

178
174 - 182

+6 (+3.47%)

Apr 26

183
179 - 188

+5 (+3.03%)

Apr 27

189
184 - 194

+6 (+3.03%)

Apr 28

195
190 - 199

+6 (+3.03%)

Apr 29

201
196 - 205

+6 (+3.03%)

Apr 30

207
202 - 212

+6 (+3.03%)

May 1

213
208 - 218

+6 (+3.03%)

May 2

219
214 - 225

+6 (+3.03%)

May 3

226
221 - 232

+7 (+3.03%)

May 4

233
227 - 239

+7 (+3.03%)

Deaths by coronavirus

3Apr 241Apr 15173May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Gabon of about 50% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 1.7 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Gabon assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1

-

Apr 16

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

2

+1 (+100%)

Apr 24

3

+1 (+50%)

Apr 25

5
5 - 5

+2 (+50%)

Apr 26

7
7 - 7

+2 (+50%)

Apr 27

10
10 - 10

+3 (+50%)

Apr 28

15
15 - 15

+5 (+50%)

Apr 29

23
23 - 23

+8 (+50%)

Apr 30

34
34 - 34

+11 (+50%)

May 1

51
51 - 51

+17 (+50%)

May 2

77
77 - 77

+26 (+50%)

May 3

115
115 - 115

+38 (+50%)

May 4

173
173 - 173

+58 (+50%)

What is the mortality rate in Gabon?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

750000000011Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Gabon, approx. 1.3% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 2,120,000 people in Gabon, that corresponds to about 75 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%2.5%2.8%2.8%2.8%3.8%3.8%5.3%5.3%6.1%6.5%6.8%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Gabon would be approx. 2.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Gabon?

Coronavirus infections

40.4%0%35%0%0.926%10.1%30%6.41%0.602%2.99%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Gabon in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%50%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Gabon in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Gabon develop?

High standardMedium standard2Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Gabon. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (636 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (318 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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