Coronavirus in French Guiana

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in French Guiana and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

18Mar 225Mar 12103Apr 1

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in French Guiana of about 18.1% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 4.2 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in French Guiana assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 12

5

-

Mar 13

5

+0 (+0%)

Mar 14

5

+0 (+0%)

Mar 16

11

+6 (+120%)

Mar 17

11

+0 (+0%)

Mar 18

11

+0 (+0%)

Mar 19

11

+0 (+0%)

Mar 20

15

+4 (+36.4%)

Mar 21

18

+3 (+20%)

Mar 22

18

+0 (+0%)

Mar 23

23
20 - 27

+5 (+27.9%)

Mar 24

27
23 - 32

+4 (+18.1%)

Mar 25

32
27 - 37

+5 (+18.1%)

Mar 26

38
32 - 44

+6 (+18.1%)

Mar 27

45
38 - 52

+7 (+18.1%)

Mar 28

53
45 - 62

+8 (+18.1%)

Mar 29

62
53 - 73

+10 (+18.1%)

Mar 30

74
63 - 86

+11 (+18.1%)

Mar 31

87
74 - 101

+13 (+18.1%)

Apr 1

103
88 - 120

+16 (+18.1%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Mar 220Mar 12

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in French Guiana assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 12

0

-

Mar 13

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 14

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 22

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in French Guiana?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

20000000000Mar 12Mar 22)}

In French Guiana, approx. 0.31% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 196,000 people in French Guiana, that corresponds to about 2 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days11 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in French Guiana would be approx. 0%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in French Guiana?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%0%120%0%0%0%36.4%20%0%Mar 12Mar 22)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in French Guiana in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Mar 12Mar 22)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in French Guiana in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in French Guiana develop?

High standardMedium standard0Mar 2329Apr 1759Apr 22

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in French Guiana. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (59 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (29 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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