Coronavirus in Finland

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Finland and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

4,400Apr 243,240Apr 156,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Finland of about 3.14% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 22 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Finland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3,240

-

Apr 16

3,370

+132 (+4.08%)

Apr 17

3,490

+120 (+3.56%)

Apr 18

3,680

+192 (+5.5%)

Apr 19

3,780

+102 (+2.77%)

Apr 20

3,870

+85 (+2.25%)

Apr 21

4,010

+146 (+3.77%)

Apr 22

4,130

+115 (+2.86%)

Apr 23

4,280

+155 (+3.75%)

Apr 24

4,400

+111 (+2.59%)

Apr 25

4,540
4,520 - 4,560

+145 (+3.31%)

Apr 26

4,680
4,660 - 4,700

+142 (+3.14%)

Apr 27

4,830
4,810 - 4,850

+147 (+3.14%)

Apr 28

4,980
4,960 - 5,000

+152 (+3.14%)

Apr 29

5,140
5,110 - 5,160

+156 (+3.14%)

Apr 30

5,300
5,270 - 5,320

+161 (+3.14%)

May 1

5,460
5,440 - 5,490

+166 (+3.14%)

May 2

5,640
5,610 - 5,660

+171 (+3.14%)

May 3

5,810
5,790 - 5,840

+177 (+3.14%)

May 4

6,000
5,970 - 6,020

+182 (+3.14%)

Deaths by coronavirus

177Apr 2472Apr 15411May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Finland of about 8.61% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8.4 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Finland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

72

-

Apr 16

75

+3 (+4.17%)

Apr 17

82

+7 (+9.33%)

Apr 18

90

+8 (+9.76%)

Apr 19

94

+4 (+4.44%)

Apr 20

98

+4 (+4.26%)

Apr 21

141

+43 (+43.9%)

Apr 22

149

+8 (+5.67%)

Apr 23

172

+23 (+15.4%)

Apr 24

177

+5 (+2.91%)

Apr 25

195
186 - 205

+18 (+10.4%)

Apr 26

212
203 - 223

+17 (+8.61%)

Apr 27

231
220 - 242

+18 (+8.61%)

Apr 28

250
239 - 263

+20 (+8.61%)

Apr 29

272
259 - 285

+22 (+8.61%)

Apr 30

295
282 - 310

+23 (+8.61%)

May 1

321
306 - 336

+25 (+8.61%)

May 2

348
332 - 365

+28 (+8.61%)

May 3

378
361 - 397

+30 (+8.61%)

May 4

411
392 - 431

+33 (+8.61%)

What is the mortality rate in Finland?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

151837844438235Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Finland, approx. 1% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 5,520,000 people in Finland, that corresponds to about 151 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4%4.1%4.3%4.4%4.6%4.7%4.8%5.1%5.3%5.5%5.6%5.8%6%6.1%6.4%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Finland would be approx. 5.1%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Finland?

Coronavirus infections

2.4%4.08%3.56%5.5%2.77%2.25%3.77%2.86%3.75%2.59%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Finland in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

12.5%4.17%9.33%9.76%4.44%4.26%43.9%5.67%15.4%2.91%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Finland in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Finland develop?

High standardMedium standard30Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Finland. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,660 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (828 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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