Coronavirus in Estonia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Estonia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,610Apr 241,400Apr 151,810May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Estonia of about 1.22% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 57 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Estonia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,400

-

Apr 16

1,430

+34 (+2.43%)

Apr 17

1,460

+25 (+1.74%)

Apr 18

1,510

+53 (+3.63%)

Apr 19

1,530

+16 (+1.06%)

Apr 20

1,540

+7 (+0.458%)

Apr 21

1,550

+17 (+1.11%)

Apr 22

1,560

+7 (+0.451%)

Apr 23

1,590

+33 (+2.12%)

Apr 24

1,610

+13 (+0.817%)

Apr 25

1,630
1,610 - 1,640

+21 (+1.28%)

Apr 26

1,650
1,630 - 1,660

+20 (+1.22%)

Apr 27

1,670
1,650 - 1,680

+20 (+1.22%)

Apr 28

1,690
1,670 - 1,700

+20 (+1.22%)

Apr 29

1,710
1,700 - 1,720

+21 (+1.22%)

Apr 30

1,730
1,720 - 1,740

+21 (+1.22%)

May 1

1,750
1,740 - 1,760

+21 (+1.22%)

May 2

1,770
1,760 - 1,780

+21 (+1.22%)

May 3

1,790
1,780 - 1,800

+22 (+1.22%)

May 4

1,810
1,800 - 1,830

+22 (+1.22%)

Deaths by coronavirus

46Apr 2435Apr 1558May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Estonia of about 2.27% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 31 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Estonia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

35

-

Apr 16

36

+1 (+2.86%)

Apr 17

38

+2 (+5.56%)

Apr 18

38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

40

+2 (+5.26%)

Apr 20

40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

43

+3 (+7.5%)

Apr 22

44

+1 (+2.33%)

Apr 23

45

+1 (+2.27%)

Apr 24

46

+1 (+2.22%)

Apr 25

47
47 - 47

+1 (+2.3%)

Apr 26

48
48 - 48

+1 (+2.27%)

Apr 27

49
49 - 49

+1 (+2.27%)

Apr 28

50
50 - 50

+1 (+2.27%)

Apr 29

51
51 - 52

+1 (+2.27%)

Apr 30

53
53 - 53

+1 (+2.27%)

May 1

54
54 - 54

+1 (+2.27%)

May 2

55
55 - 55

+1 (+2.27%)

May 3

56
56 - 56

+1 (+2.27%)

May 4

58
58 - 58

+1 (+2.27%)

What is the mortality rate in Estonia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

464120203111Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Estonia, approx. 1.26% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 1,320,000 people in Estonia, that corresponds to about 46 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.9%2.9%3%3%3%3%3%3.2%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Estonia would be approx. 3.2%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Estonia?

Coronavirus infections

1.97%2.43%1.74%3.63%1.06%0.458%1.11%0.451%2.12%0.817%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Estonia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

12.9%2.86%5.56%0%5.26%0%7.5%2.33%2.27%2.22%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Estonia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Estonia develop?

High standardMedium standard6Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Estonia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (396 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (198 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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