Coronavirus in Equatorial Guinea

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Equatorial Guinea and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

214Apr 2451Apr 152,780May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Equatorial Guinea of about 32.9% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 2.4 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Equatorial Guinea assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

51

-

Apr 16

51

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

79

+28 (+54.9%)

Apr 18

79

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

79

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

79

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

83

+4 (+5.06%)

Apr 22

84

+1 (+1.2%)

Apr 23

84

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

214

+130 (+155%)

Apr 25

215
130 - 358

+1 (+0.601%)

Apr 26

286
172 - 475

+71 (+32.9%)

Apr 27

380
229 - 632

+94 (+32.9%)

Apr 28

505
304 - 839

+125 (+32.9%)

Apr 29

671
404 - 1,110

+166 (+32.9%)

Apr 30

891
536 - 1,480

+220 (+32.9%)

May 1

1,180
713 - 1,970

+293 (+32.9%)

May 2

1,570
947 - 2,610

+389 (+32.9%)

May 3

2,090
1,260 - 3,470

+517 (+32.9%)

May 4

2,780
1,670 - 4,620

+687 (+32.9%)

Deaths by coronavirus

1Apr 240Apr 15

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Equatorial Guinea assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

0

-

Apr 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

1

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Equatorial Guinea?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

300000000100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Equatorial Guinea, approx. 0.839% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 1,310,000 people in Equatorial Guinea, that corresponds to about 30 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.47%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%2%2%2.4%4.8%4.8%5.6%5.6%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Equatorial Guinea would be approx. 1.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Equatorial Guinea?

Coronavirus infections

24.4%0%54.9%0%0%0%5.06%1.2%0%155%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Equatorial Guinea in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%In,fin,ity%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Equatorial Guinea in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Equatorial Guinea develop?

High standardMedium standard4Apr 25196May 8393May 11

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Equatorial Guinea. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (393 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (196 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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