Coronavirus in El Salvador

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in El Salvador and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

274Apr 24159Apr 15516May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in El Salvador of about 6.66% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 11 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in El Salvador assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

159

-

Apr 16

164

+5 (+3.14%)

Apr 17

177

+13 (+7.93%)

Apr 18

190

+13 (+7.34%)

Apr 19

201

+11 (+5.79%)

Apr 20

218

+17 (+8.46%)

Apr 21

225

+7 (+3.21%)

Apr 22

237

+12 (+5.33%)

Apr 23

250

+13 (+5.49%)

Apr 24

274

+24 (+9.6%)

Apr 25

289
283 - 295

+15 (+5.41%)

Apr 26

308
301 - 315

+19 (+6.66%)

Apr 27

329
322 - 336

+21 (+6.66%)

Apr 28

350
343 - 358

+22 (+6.66%)

Apr 29

374
366 - 382

+23 (+6.66%)

Apr 30

399
390 - 407

+25 (+6.66%)

May 1

425
416 - 434

+27 (+6.66%)

May 2

453
444 - 463

+28 (+6.66%)

May 3

484
473 - 494

+30 (+6.66%)

May 4

516
505 - 527

+32 (+6.66%)

Deaths by coronavirus

8Apr 246Apr 1514May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in El Salvador of about 5.49% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 13 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in El Salvador assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6

-

Apr 16

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

7

+1 (+16.7%)

Apr 18

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

8

+1 (+14.3%)

Apr 24

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

9
8 - 9

+0 (+6.9%)

Apr 26

9
8 - 10

+0 (+5.49%)

Apr 27

10
9 - 10

+0 (+5.49%)

Apr 28

10
9 - 11

+0 (+5.49%)

Apr 29

11
10 - 11

+0 (+5.49%)

Apr 30

11
11 - 12

+0 (+5.49%)

May 1

12
11 - 13

+0 (+5.49%)

May 2

12
12 - 13

+0 (+5.49%)

May 3

13
12 - 14

+0 (+5.49%)

May 4

14
13 - 15

+0 (+5.49%)

What is the mortality rate in El Salvador?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1000010000010Apr 15Apr 24)}

In El Salvador, approx. 0.567% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 6,420,000 people in El Salvador, that corresponds to about 100 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.9%3.2%3.4%3.6%3.7%4%4.2%4.5%4.9%5%5.4%5.8%6.4%6.8%6.8%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in El Salvador would be approx. 4.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in El Salvador?

Coronavirus infections

6.71%3.14%7.93%7.34%5.79%8.46%3.21%5.33%5.49%9.6%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in El Salvador in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%16.7%0%0%0%0%0%14.3%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in El Salvador in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in El Salvador develop?

High standardMedium standard3Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in El Salvador. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,930 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (963 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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