Coronavirus in Egypt

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Egypt and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

4,090Apr 242,510Apr 157,020May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Egypt of about 5.54% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 13 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Egypt assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

2,510

-

Apr 16

2,670

+168 (+6.71%)

Apr 17

2,840

+171 (+6.4%)

Apr 18

3,030

+188 (+6.61%)

Apr 19

3,140

+112 (+3.69%)

Apr 20

3,330

+189 (+6.01%)

Apr 21

3,490

+157 (+4.71%)

Apr 22

3,660

+169 (+4.84%)

Apr 23

3,890

+232 (+6.34%)

Apr 24

4,090

+201 (+5.17%)

Apr 25

4,320
4,300 - 4,350

+229 (+5.59%)

Apr 26

4,560
4,530 - 4,590

+239 (+5.54%)

Apr 27

4,810
4,780 - 4,840

+252 (+5.54%)

Apr 28

5,080
5,050 - 5,110

+266 (+5.54%)

Apr 29

5,360
5,330 - 5,390

+281 (+5.54%)

Apr 30

5,660
5,620 - 5,690

+297 (+5.54%)

May 1

5,970
5,940 - 6,010

+313 (+5.54%)

May 2

6,300
6,260 - 6,340

+331 (+5.54%)

May 3

6,650
6,610 - 6,690

+349 (+5.54%)

May 4

7,020
6,980 - 7,060

+368 (+5.54%)

Deaths by coronavirus

294Apr 24183Apr 15425May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Egypt of about 3.69% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 19 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Egypt assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

183

-

Apr 16

196

+13 (+7.1%)

Apr 17

205

+9 (+4.59%)

Apr 18

224

+19 (+9.27%)

Apr 19

239

+15 (+6.7%)

Apr 20

250

+11 (+4.6%)

Apr 21

264

+14 (+5.6%)

Apr 22

276

+12 (+4.55%)

Apr 23

287

+11 (+3.99%)

Apr 24

294

+7 (+2.44%)

Apr 25

307
303 - 310

+13 (+4.27%)

Apr 26

318
315 - 321

+11 (+3.69%)

Apr 27

330
326 - 333

+12 (+3.69%)

Apr 28

342
338 - 345

+12 (+3.69%)

Apr 29

354
351 - 358

+13 (+3.69%)

Apr 30

367
364 - 371

+13 (+3.69%)

May 1

381
377 - 385

+14 (+3.69%)

May 2

395
391 - 399

+14 (+3.69%)

May 3

409
405 - 414

+15 (+3.69%)

May 4

425
420 - 429

+15 (+3.69%)

What is the mortality rate in Egypt?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,29051391915111412117Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Egypt, approx. 0.477% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 98,400,000 people in Egypt, that corresponds to about 1,290 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

7.2%7.6%8%8.4%8.8%9.4%9.7%10%11%12%13%13%14%15%16%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Egypt would be approx. 10%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Egypt?

Coronavirus infections

6.6%6.71%6.4%6.61%3.69%6.01%4.71%4.84%6.34%5.17%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Egypt in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

2.81%7.1%4.59%9.27%6.7%4.6%5.6%4.55%3.99%2.44%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Egypt in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Egypt develop?

High standardMedium standard43Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Egypt. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (29,500 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (14,800 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy