Coronavirus in Ecuador

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Ecuador and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

22,700Apr 247,860Apr 15200,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Ecuador of about 26.8% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 2.9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Ecuador assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

7,860

-

Apr 16

8,230

+367 (+4.67%)

Apr 17

8,450

+225 (+2.74%)

Apr 18

9,020

+572 (+6.77%)

Apr 19

9,470

+446 (+4.94%)

Apr 20

10,100

+660 (+6.97%)

Apr 21

10,400

+270 (+2.67%)

Apr 22

10,900

+452 (+4.35%)

Apr 23

11,200

+333 (+3.07%)

Apr 24

22,700

+11,500 (+103%)

Apr 25

23,600
16,300 - 34,000

+842 (+3.71%)

Apr 26

29,900
20,700 - 43,100

+6,320 (+26.8%)

Apr 27

37,900
26,200 - 54,700

+8,010 (+26.8%)

Apr 28

48,000
33,300 - 69,400

+10,200 (+26.8%)

Apr 29

60,900
42,200 - 88,000

+12,900 (+26.8%)

Apr 30

77,300
53,500 - 112,000

+16,300 (+26.8%)

May 1

98,000
67,900 - 141,000

+20,700 (+26.8%)

May 2

124,000
86,000 - 179,000

+26,300 (+26.8%)

May 3

158,000
109,000 - 227,000

+33,300 (+26.8%)

May 4

200,000
138,000 - 288,000

+42,200 (+26.8%)

Deaths by coronavirus

576Apr 24388Apr 15818May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Ecuador of about 3.55% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 20 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Ecuador assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

388

-

Apr 16

403

+15 (+3.87%)

Apr 17

421

+18 (+4.47%)

Apr 18

456

+35 (+8.31%)

Apr 19

474

+18 (+3.95%)

Apr 20

507

+33 (+6.96%)

Apr 21

520

+13 (+2.56%)

Apr 22

537

+17 (+3.27%)

Apr 23

560

+23 (+4.28%)

Apr 24

576

+16 (+2.86%)

Apr 25

598
594 - 601

+22 (+3.77%)

Apr 26

619
615 - 622

+21 (+3.55%)

Apr 27

641
637 - 645

+22 (+3.55%)

Apr 28

664
660 - 667

+23 (+3.55%)

Apr 29

687
683 - 691

+24 (+3.55%)

Apr 30

712
708 - 716

+24 (+3.55%)

May 1

737
733 - 741

+25 (+3.55%)

May 2

763
759 - 767

+26 (+3.55%)

May 3

790
786 - 795

+27 (+3.55%)

May 4

818
814 - 823

+28 (+3.55%)

What is the mortality rate in Ecuador?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

23619151835183313172316Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Ecuador, approx. 0.504% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 17,100,000 people in Ecuador, that corresponds to about 236 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.5%5.2%5.3%5.5%5.7%6.1%6.4%6.8%7%7.3%7.6%7.7%7.7%7.9%8%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Ecuador would be approx. 6.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Ecuador?

Coronavirus infections

3.35%4.67%2.74%6.77%4.94%6.97%2.67%4.35%3.07%103%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Ecuador in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

5.15%3.87%4.47%8.31%3.95%6.96%2.56%3.27%4.28%2.86%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Ecuador in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Ecuador develop?

High standardMedium standard321Apr 252,560May 25,130May 5

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Ecuador. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,130 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,560 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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