Coronavirus in Denmark

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Denmark and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

8,410Apr 246,880Apr 1510,400May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Denmark of about 2.13% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 33 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Denmark assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6,880

-

Apr 16

7,070

+198 (+2.88%)

Apr 17

7,270

+194 (+2.74%)

Apr 18

7,440

+169 (+2.33%)

Apr 19

7,580

+143 (+1.92%)

Apr 20

7,710

+131 (+1.73%)

Apr 21

7,890

+180 (+2.33%)

Apr 22

8,110

+217 (+2.75%)

Apr 23

8,270

+163 (+2.01%)

Apr 24

8,410

+137 (+1.66%)

Apr 25

8,610
8,560 - 8,650

+200 (+2.38%)

Apr 26

8,790
8,740 - 8,840

+183 (+2.13%)

Apr 27

8,980
8,930 - 9,030

+187 (+2.13%)

Apr 28

9,170
9,120 - 9,220

+191 (+2.13%)

Apr 29

9,360
9,310 - 9,410

+195 (+2.13%)

Apr 30

9,560
9,510 - 9,610

+199 (+2.13%)

May 1

9,770
9,710 - 9,820

+203 (+2.13%)

May 2

9,970
9,920 - 10,000

+208 (+2.13%)

May 3

10,200
10,100 - 10,200

+212 (+2.13%)

May 4

10,400
10,300 - 10,500

+216 (+2.13%)

Deaths by coronavirus

403Apr 24309Apr 15536May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Denmark of about 2.86% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 25 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Denmark assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

309

-

Apr 16

321

+12 (+3.88%)

Apr 17

336

+15 (+4.67%)

Apr 18

346

+10 (+2.98%)

Apr 19

355

+9 (+2.6%)

Apr 20

364

+9 (+2.54%)

Apr 21

370

+6 (+1.65%)

Apr 22

384

+14 (+3.78%)

Apr 23

394

+10 (+2.6%)

Apr 24

403

+9 (+2.28%)

Apr 25

416
413 - 419

+13 (+3.19%)

Apr 26

428
425 - 431

+12 (+2.86%)

Apr 27

440
437 - 443

+12 (+2.86%)

Apr 28

453
449 - 456

+13 (+2.86%)

Apr 29

466
462 - 469

+13 (+2.86%)

Apr 30

479
475 - 482

+13 (+2.86%)

May 1

493
489 - 496

+14 (+2.86%)

May 2

507
503 - 510

+14 (+2.86%)

May 3

521
517 - 525

+14 (+2.86%)

May 4

536
532 - 540

+15 (+2.86%)

What is the mortality rate in Denmark?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1641012151099614109Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Denmark, approx. 1.03% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 5,800,000 people in Denmark, that corresponds to about 164 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4.8%4.9%5%5.1%5.2%5.3%5.4%5.5%5.7%5.9%6%6.2%6.3%6.5%6.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Denmark would be approx. 5.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Denmark?

Coronavirus infections

2.54%2.88%2.74%2.33%1.92%1.73%2.33%2.75%2.01%1.66%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Denmark in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

3.34%3.88%4.67%2.98%2.6%2.54%1.65%3.78%2.6%2.28%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Denmark in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Denmark develop?

High standardMedium standard42Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Denmark. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,740 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (870 total).

Coronavirus in Denmark

How were the past few days in Denmark and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,400Mar 22801Mar 132,640Apr 1

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Denmark of about 6.52% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 11 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Denmark assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

801

-

Mar 14

827

+26 (+3.25%)

Mar 15

864

+37 (+4.47%)

Mar 16

914

+50 (+5.79%)

Mar 17

977

+63 (+6.89%)

Mar 18

1,060

+80 (+8.19%)

Mar 19

1,150

+94 (+8.89%)

Mar 20

1,260

+104 (+9.04%)

Mar 21

1,330

+71 (+5.66%)

Mar 22

1,400

+69 (+5.2%)

Mar 23

1,500
1,470 - 1,530

+102 (+7.33%)

Mar 24

1,590
1,570 - 1,630

+98 (+6.52%)

Mar 25

1,700
1,670 - 1,730

+104 (+6.52%)

Mar 26

1,810
1,780 - 1,840

+111 (+6.52%)

Mar 27

1,930
1,890 - 1,960

+118 (+6.52%)

Mar 28

2,050
2,020 - 2,090

+126 (+6.52%)

Mar 29

2,190
2,150 - 2,230

+134 (+6.52%)

Mar 30

2,330
2,290 - 2,370

+143 (+6.52%)

Mar 31

2,480
2,440 - 2,530

+152 (+6.52%)

Apr 1

2,640
2,590 - 2,690

+162 (+6.52%)

Deaths by coronavirus

13Mar 220Mar 13215Apr 1

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Denmark of about 30.8% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 2.6 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Denmark assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

0

-

Mar 14

1

+0 (+0%)

Mar 15

2

+1 (+100%)

Mar 16

3

+1 (+50%)

Mar 17

4

+1 (+33.3%)

Mar 18

4

+0 (+0%)

Mar 19

6

+2 (+50%)

Mar 20

9

+3 (+50%)

Mar 21

13

+4 (+44.4%)

Mar 22

13

+0 (+0%)

Mar 23

19
15 - 24

+6 (+47.2%)

Mar 24

25
20 - 31

+6 (+30.8%)

Mar 25

33
26 - 41

+8 (+30.8%)

Mar 26

43
35 - 53

+10 (+30.8%)

Mar 27

56
45 - 70

+13 (+30.8%)

Mar 28

73
59 - 91

+17 (+30.8%)

Mar 29

96
77 - 119

+23 (+30.8%)

Mar 30

126
101 - 156

+30 (+30.8%)

Mar 31

164
132 - 204

+39 (+30.8%)

Apr 1

215
173 - 267

+51 (+30.8%)

What is the mortality rate in Denmark?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.93%0.98%1%1.1%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.6%1.6%2.1%2.9%0 days11 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Denmark would be approx. 1.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Denmark?

Coronavirus infections

30.2%3.25%4.47%5.79%6.89%8.19%8.89%9.04%5.66%5.2%Mar 13Mar 22)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Denmark in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%In,fin,ity%100%50%33.3%0%50%50%44.4%0%Mar 13Mar 22)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Denmark in the previous days.

Coronavirus in Faroe Islands

How were the past few days in Faroe Islands and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

187Apr 24184Apr 15195May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Faroe Islands of about 0.431% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 160 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Faroe Islands assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

184

-

Apr 16

184

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

184

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

184

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

185

+1 (+0.543%)

Apr 20

185

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

185

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

185

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

187

+2 (+1.08%)

Apr 24

187

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

188
187 - 189

+1 (+0.539%)

Apr 26

189
188 - 190

+0 (+0.431%)

Apr 27

190
189 - 191

+0 (+0.431%)

Apr 28

190
190 - 191

+0 (+0.431%)

Apr 29

191
190 - 192

+0 (+0.431%)

Apr 30

192
191 - 193

+0 (+0.431%)

May 1

193
192 - 194

+0 (+0.431%)

May 2

194
193 - 195

+0 (+0.431%)

May 3

195
194 - 196

+0 (+0.431%)

May 4

195
194 - 196

+0 (+0.431%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Apr 240Apr 15

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Faroe Islands assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

0

-

Apr 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Faroe Islands?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Faroe Islands would be approx. 0%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Faroe Islands?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%0%0%0.543%0%0%0%1.08%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Faroe Islands in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Faroe Islands in the previous days.

Coronavirus in Greenland

How were the past few days in Greenland and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

11Apr 2411Apr 1511May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Greenland of about -5.82e-10% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every -,120,000,000,000 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Greenland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

11

-

Apr 16

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-1.46e-9%)

Apr 26

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-5.82e-10%)

Apr 27

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-5.82e-10%)

Apr 28

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-5.82e-10%)

Apr 29

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-5.82e-10%)

Apr 30

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-5.82e-10%)

May 1

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-5.82e-10%)

May 2

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-5.82e-10%)

May 3

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-5.82e-10%)

May 4

11
11 - 11

+0 (+-5.82e-10%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Apr 240Apr 15

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Greenland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

0

-

Apr 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Greenland?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Greenland would be approx. 0%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Greenland?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Greenland in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Greenland in the previous days.

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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