Coronavirus in Czech Republic

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Czech Republic and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

7,270Apr 246,220Apr 158,110May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Czech Republic of about 1.09% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 64 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Czech Republic assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6,220

-

Apr 16

6,430

+217 (+3.49%)

Apr 17

6,550

+116 (+1.8%)

Apr 18

6,610

+57 (+0.87%)

Apr 19

6,750

+140 (+2.12%)

Apr 20

6,900

+154 (+2.28%)

Apr 21

7,030

+133 (+1.93%)

Apr 22

7,130

+99 (+1.41%)

Apr 23

7,190

+55 (+0.771%)

Apr 24

7,270

+86 (+1.2%)

Apr 25

7,350
7,330 - 7,370

+79 (+1.09%)

Apr 26

7,430
7,410 - 7,450

+80 (+1.09%)

Apr 27

7,510
7,490 - 7,530

+81 (+1.09%)

Apr 28

7,600
7,580 - 7,610

+82 (+1.09%)

Apr 29

7,680
7,660 - 7,700

+83 (+1.09%)

Apr 30

7,760
7,740 - 7,780

+84 (+1.09%)

May 1

7,850
7,830 - 7,870

+85 (+1.09%)

May 2

7,930
7,910 - 7,950

+85 (+1.09%)

May 3

8,020
8,000 - 8,040

+86 (+1.09%)

May 4

8,110
8,080 - 8,130

+87 (+1.09%)

Deaths by coronavirus

214Apr 24166Apr 15261May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Czech Republic of about 2% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 35 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Czech Republic assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

166

-

Apr 16

169

+3 (+1.81%)

Apr 17

173

+4 (+2.37%)

Apr 18

181

+8 (+4.62%)

Apr 19

186

+5 (+2.76%)

Apr 20

194

+8 (+4.3%)

Apr 21

201

+7 (+3.61%)

Apr 22

208

+7 (+3.48%)

Apr 23

210

+2 (+0.962%)

Apr 24

214

+4 (+1.9%)

Apr 25

219
216 - 221

+5 (+2.21%)

Apr 26

223
221 - 226

+4 (+2%)

Apr 27

228
225 - 230

+4 (+2%)

Apr 28

232
230 - 235

+5 (+2%)

Apr 29

237
234 - 239

+5 (+2%)

Apr 30

241
239 - 244

+5 (+2%)

May 1

246
244 - 249

+5 (+2%)

May 2

251
248 - 254

+5 (+2%)

May 3

256
253 - 259

+5 (+2%)

May 4

261
259 - 264

+5 (+2%)

What is the mortality rate in Czech Republic?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3065348587724Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Czech Republic, approx. 1.05% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 10,600,000 people in Czech Republic, that corresponds to about 306 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.9%3%3%3%3.1%3.2%3.2%3.3%3.3%3.4%3.5%3.5%3.6%3.7%3.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Czech Republic would be approx. 3.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Czech Republic?

Coronavirus infections

1.72%3.49%1.8%0.87%2.12%2.28%1.93%1.41%0.771%1.2%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Czech Republic in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

3.11%1.81%2.37%4.62%2.76%4.3%3.61%3.48%0.962%1.9%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Czech Republic in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Czech Republic develop?

High standardMedium standard26Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Czech Republic. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,190 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,590 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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