Coronavirus in Cuba

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Cuba and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,290Apr 24814Apr 151,930May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Cuba of about 4.13% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 17 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Cuba assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

814

-

Apr 16

862

+48 (+5.9%)

Apr 17

923

+61 (+7.08%)

Apr 18

986

+63 (+6.83%)

Apr 19

1,040

+49 (+4.97%)

Apr 20

1,090

+52 (+5.02%)

Apr 21

1,140

+50 (+4.6%)

Apr 22

1,190

+52 (+4.57%)

Apr 23

1,240

+46 (+3.87%)

Apr 24

1,290

+50 (+4.05%)

Apr 25

1,340
1,340 - 1,340

+54 (+4.22%)

Apr 26

1,390
1,390 - 1,400

+55 (+4.13%)

Apr 27

1,450
1,450 - 1,460

+58 (+4.13%)

Apr 28

1,510
1,510 - 1,520

+60 (+4.13%)

Apr 29

1,570
1,570 - 1,580

+63 (+4.13%)

Apr 30

1,640
1,630 - 1,650

+65 (+4.13%)

May 1

1,710
1,700 - 1,710

+68 (+4.13%)

May 2

1,780
1,770 - 1,780

+71 (+4.13%)

May 3

1,850
1,850 - 1,860

+74 (+4.13%)

May 4

1,930
1,920 - 1,930

+77 (+4.13%)

Deaths by coronavirus

49Apr 2424Apr 15111May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Cuba of about 8.71% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8.3 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Cuba assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

24

-

Apr 16

27

+3 (+12.5%)

Apr 17

31

+4 (+14.8%)

Apr 18

32

+1 (+3.23%)

Apr 19

34

+2 (+6.25%)

Apr 20

36

+2 (+5.88%)

Apr 21

38

+2 (+5.56%)

Apr 22

40

+2 (+5.26%)

Apr 23

43

+3 (+7.5%)

Apr 24

49

+6 (+14%)

Apr 25

52
50 - 54

+3 (+6.38%)

Apr 26

57
54 - 59

+5 (+8.71%)

Apr 27

62
59 - 64

+5 (+8.71%)

Apr 28

67
64 - 70

+5 (+8.71%)

Apr 29

73
70 - 76

+6 (+8.71%)

Apr 30

79
76 - 82

+6 (+8.71%)

May 1

86
83 - 90

+7 (+8.71%)

May 2

94
90 - 97

+7 (+8.71%)

May 3

102
98 - 106

+8 (+8.71%)

May 4

111
106 - 115

+9 (+8.71%)

What is the mortality rate in Cuba?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2373341222236Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Cuba, approx. 0.764% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 11,300,000 people in Cuba, that corresponds to about 237 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

3.8%4%4.1%4.3%4.5%4.7%5%5.3%5.7%6%6.4%6.7%7.3%7.9%8.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Cuba would be approx. 5.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Cuba?

Coronavirus infections

6.27%5.9%7.08%6.83%4.97%5.02%4.6%4.57%3.87%4.05%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Cuba in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

14.3%12.5%14.8%3.23%6.25%5.88%5.56%5.26%7.5%14%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Cuba in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Cuba develop?

High standardMedium standard12Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Cuba. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,400 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,700 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy