Coronavirus in Cote D'Ivoire

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Cote D'Ivoire and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,080Apr 24638Apr 151,830May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Cote D'Ivoire of about 5.54% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 13 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Cote D'Ivoire assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

638

-

Apr 16

654

+16 (+2.51%)

Apr 17

688

+34 (+5.2%)

Apr 18

801

+113 (+16.4%)

Apr 19

847

+46 (+5.74%)

Apr 20

847

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

916

+69 (+8.15%)

Apr 22

952

+36 (+3.93%)

Apr 23

1,000

+52 (+5.46%)

Apr 24

1,080

+73 (+7.27%)

Apr 25

1,130
1,110 - 1,150

+51 (+4.69%)

Apr 26

1,190
1,170 - 1,210

+62 (+5.54%)

Apr 27

1,260
1,240 - 1,280

+66 (+5.54%)

Apr 28

1,330
1,300 - 1,350

+70 (+5.54%)

Apr 29

1,400
1,380 - 1,420

+73 (+5.54%)

Apr 30

1,480
1,450 - 1,500

+77 (+5.54%)

May 1

1,560
1,530 - 1,580

+82 (+5.54%)

May 2

1,640
1,620 - 1,670

+86 (+5.54%)

May 3

1,740
1,710 - 1,760

+91 (+5.54%)

May 4

1,830
1,800 - 1,860

+96 (+5.54%)

Deaths by coronavirus

14Apr 246Apr 1518May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Cote D'Ivoire of about 2.25% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 31 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Cote D'Ivoire assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6

-

Apr 16

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

8

+2 (+33.3%)

Apr 19

9

+1 (+12.5%)

Apr 20

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

13

+4 (+44.4%)

Apr 22

14

+1 (+7.69%)

Apr 23

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

15
14 - 15

+0 (+3.77%)

Apr 26

15
14 - 15

+0 (+2.25%)

Apr 27

15
15 - 16

+0 (+2.25%)

Apr 28

16
15 - 16

+0 (+2.25%)

Apr 29

16
15 - 17

+0 (+2.25%)

Apr 30

16
16 - 17

+0 (+2.25%)

May 1

17
16 - 17

+0 (+2.25%)

May 2

17
16 - 18

+0 (+2.25%)

May 3

17
17 - 18

+0 (+2.25%)

May 4

18
17 - 18

+0 (+2.25%)

What is the mortality rate in Cote D'Ivoire?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

6460002104100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Cote D'Ivoire, approx. 0.94% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 25,100,000 people in Cote D'Ivoire, that corresponds to about 646 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.3%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.7%1.7%1.7%2%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.4%2.6%3.2%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Cote D'Ivoire would be approx. 2%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Cote D'Ivoire?

Coronavirus infections

0%2.51%5.2%16.4%5.74%0%8.15%3.93%5.46%7.27%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Cote D'Ivoire in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%33.3%12.5%0%44.4%7.69%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Cote D'Ivoire in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Cote D'Ivoire develop?

High standardMedium standard10Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Cote D'Ivoire. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (7,520 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,760 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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