Coronavirus in Colombia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Colombia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

4,880Apr 243,110Apr 158,270May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Colombia of about 5.48% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 13 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Colombia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3,110

-

Apr 16

3,230

+128 (+4.12%)

Apr 17

3,440

+206 (+6.37%)

Apr 18

3,440

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

3,790

+353 (+10.3%)

Apr 20

3,980

+185 (+4.88%)

Apr 21

4,150

+172 (+4.32%)

Apr 22

4,360

+207 (+4.99%)

Apr 23

4,560

+205 (+4.71%)

Apr 24

4,880

+320 (+7.02%)

Apr 25

5,120
5,060 - 5,170

+237 (+4.85%)

Apr 26

5,400
5,340 - 5,460

+280 (+5.48%)

Apr 27

5,690
5,630 - 5,760

+296 (+5.48%)

Apr 28

6,010
5,940 - 6,070

+312 (+5.48%)

Apr 29

6,330
6,270 - 6,410

+329 (+5.48%)

Apr 30

6,680
6,610 - 6,760

+347 (+5.48%)

May 1

7,050
6,970 - 7,130

+366 (+5.48%)

May 2

7,430
7,350 - 7,520

+386 (+5.48%)

May 3

7,840
7,760 - 7,930

+407 (+5.48%)

May 4

8,270
8,180 - 8,360

+430 (+5.48%)

Deaths by coronavirus

225Apr 24131Apr 15355May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Colombia of about 4.67% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 15 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Colombia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

131

-

Apr 16

144

+13 (+9.92%)

Apr 17

153

+9 (+6.25%)

Apr 18

153

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

179

+26 (+17%)

Apr 20

189

+10 (+5.59%)

Apr 21

196

+7 (+3.7%)

Apr 22

206

+10 (+5.1%)

Apr 23

215

+9 (+4.37%)

Apr 24

225

+10 (+4.65%)

Apr 25

236
235 - 236

+11 (+4.73%)

Apr 26

247
246 - 247

+11 (+4.67%)

Apr 27

258
257 - 259

+12 (+4.67%)

Apr 28

270
269 - 271

+12 (+4.67%)

Apr 29

283
282 - 284

+13 (+4.67%)

Apr 30

296
295 - 297

+13 (+4.67%)

May 1

310
309 - 311

+14 (+4.67%)

May 2

324
323 - 325

+14 (+4.67%)

May 3

340
339 - 341

+15 (+4.67%)

May 4

355
354 - 357

+16 (+4.67%)

What is the mortality rate in Colombia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

729413902610710910Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Colombia, approx. 0.536% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 49,600,000 people in Colombia, that corresponds to about 729 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4.6%4.9%5.2%5.4%5.7%5.9%6.5%6.5%7%7.2%7.6%7.9%8.1%8.3%9.1%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Colombia would be approx. 6.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Colombia?

Coronavirus infections

4.23%4.12%6.37%0%10.3%4.88%4.32%4.99%4.71%7.02%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Colombia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

3.15%9.92%6.25%0%17%5.59%3.7%5.1%4.37%4.65%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Colombia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Colombia develop?

High standardMedium standard45Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Colombia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (14,900 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (7,450 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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