Coronavirus in Chile

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Chile and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

12,300Apr 248,270Apr 1518,900May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Chile of about 4.37% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 16 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Chile assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

8,270

-

Apr 16

8,810

+534 (+6.45%)

Apr 17

9,250

+445 (+5.05%)

Apr 18

9,730

+478 (+5.17%)

Apr 19

10,100

+358 (+3.68%)

Apr 20

10,500

+419 (+4.15%)

Apr 21

10,800

+325 (+3.09%)

Apr 22

11,300

+464 (+4.28%)

Apr 23

11,800

+516 (+4.57%)

Apr 24

12,300

+494 (+4.18%)

Apr 25

12,900
12,800 - 12,900

+545 (+4.43%)

Apr 26

13,400
13,400 - 13,400

+561 (+4.37%)

Apr 27

14,000
14,000 - 14,000

+586 (+4.37%)

Apr 28

14,600
14,600 - 14,600

+611 (+4.37%)

Apr 29

15,200
15,200 - 15,300

+638 (+4.37%)

Apr 30

15,900
15,900 - 15,900

+666 (+4.37%)

May 1

16,600
16,600 - 16,600

+695 (+4.37%)

May 2

17,300
17,300 - 17,400

+725 (+4.37%)

May 3

18,100
18,100 - 18,100

+757 (+4.37%)

May 4

18,900
18,900 - 18,900

+790 (+4.37%)

Deaths by coronavirus

174Apr 2494Apr 15306May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Chile of about 5.7% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 12 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Chile assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

94

-

Apr 16

105

+11 (+11.7%)

Apr 17

116

+11 (+10.5%)

Apr 18

126

+10 (+8.62%)

Apr 19

133

+7 (+5.56%)

Apr 20

139

+6 (+4.51%)

Apr 21

147

+8 (+5.76%)

Apr 22

160

+13 (+8.84%)

Apr 23

168

+8 (+5%)

Apr 24

174

+6 (+3.57%)

Apr 25

186
181 - 191

+12 (+6.9%)

Apr 26

197
192 - 202

+11 (+5.7%)

Apr 27

208
203 - 213

+11 (+5.7%)

Apr 28

220
214 - 225

+12 (+5.7%)

Apr 29

232
226 - 238

+13 (+5.7%)

Apr 30

245
239 - 252

+13 (+5.7%)

May 1

259
253 - 266

+14 (+5.7%)

May 2

274
267 - 281

+15 (+5.7%)

May 3

290
283 - 297

+16 (+5.7%)

May 4

306
299 - 314

+17 (+5.7%)

What is the mortality rate in Chile?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

30421111107681386Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Chile, approx. 0.593% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 18,700,000 people in Chile, that corresponds to about 304 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.4%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.7%1.8%1.9%2%2.1%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Chile would be approx. 1.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Chile?

Coronavirus infections

4.5%6.45%5.05%5.17%3.68%4.15%3.09%4.28%4.57%4.18%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Chile in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

2.17%11.7%10.5%8.62%5.56%4.51%5.76%8.84%5%3.57%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Chile in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Chile develop?

High standardMedium standard107Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Chile. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,620 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,810 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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