Coronavirus in Central African Republic

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Central African Republic and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

16Apr 2412Apr 1528May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Central African Republic of about 5.49% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 13 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Central African Republic assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

12

-

Apr 16

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

14

+2 (+16.7%)

Apr 22

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

16

+2 (+14.3%)

Apr 24

16

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

17
16 - 18

+1 (+6.9%)

Apr 26

18
17 - 19

+0 (+5.49%)

Apr 27

19
18 - 20

+0 (+5.49%)

Apr 28

20
19 - 21

+1 (+5.49%)

Apr 29

21
20 - 22

+1 (+5.49%)

Apr 30

22
21 - 24

+1 (+5.49%)

May 1

24
22 - 25

+1 (+5.49%)

May 2

25
23 - 26

+1 (+5.49%)

May 3

26
25 - 28

+1 (+5.49%)

May 4

28
26 - 29

+1 (+5.49%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Apr 240Apr 15

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Central African Republic assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

0

-

Apr 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Central African Republic?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1690000000000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Central African Republic, approx. 1.32% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 4,670,000 people in Central African Republic, that corresponds to about 169 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Central African Republic would be approx. 0%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Central African Republic?

Coronavirus infections

9.09%0%0%0%0%0%16.7%0%14.3%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Central African Republic in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Central African Republic in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Central African Republic develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Central African Republic. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,400 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (700 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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