Coronavirus in Burundi

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Burundi and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

11Apr 245Apr 15137May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Burundi of about 26.7% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 2.9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Burundi assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5

-

Apr 16

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

11

+6 (+120%)

Apr 23

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

16
11 - 25

+5 (+48.3%)

Apr 26

21
13 - 32

+4 (+26.7%)

Apr 27

26
17 - 40

+6 (+26.7%)

Apr 28

33
22 - 51

+7 (+26.7%)

Apr 29

42
27 - 65

+9 (+26.7%)

Apr 30

53
35 - 82

+11 (+26.7%)

May 1

67
44 - 104

+14 (+26.7%)

May 2

85
55 - 132

+18 (+26.7%)

May 3

108
70 - 167

+23 (+26.7%)

May 4

137
89 - 211

+29 (+26.7%)

Deaths by coronavirus

1Apr 241Apr 15

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Burundi assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1

-

Apr 16

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

1

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Burundi?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2690000000000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Burundi, approx. 0.88% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 11,200,000 people in Burundi, that corresponds to about 269 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

9.1%9.1%9.1%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%33%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Burundi would be approx. 20%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Burundi?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%120%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Burundi in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Burundi in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Burundi develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 251,680May 313,350Jun 3

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Burundi. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,350 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,680 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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