Coronavirus in Burkina Faso

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Burkina Faso and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

629Apr 24542Apr 15731May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Burkina Faso of about 1.54% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 45 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Burkina Faso assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

542

-

Apr 16

546

+4 (+0.738%)

Apr 17

557

+11 (+2.01%)

Apr 18

565

+8 (+1.44%)

Apr 19

576

+11 (+1.95%)

Apr 20

581

+5 (+0.868%)

Apr 21

600

+19 (+3.27%)

Apr 22

609

+9 (+1.5%)

Apr 23

616

+7 (+1.15%)

Apr 24

629

+13 (+2.11%)

Apr 25

637
635 - 640

+8 (+1.32%)

Apr 26

647
644 - 650

+10 (+1.54%)

Apr 27

657
654 - 660

+10 (+1.54%)

Apr 28

667
665 - 670

+10 (+1.54%)

Apr 29

678
675 - 680

+10 (+1.54%)

Apr 30

688
685 - 691

+10 (+1.54%)

May 1

699
696 - 702

+11 (+1.54%)

May 2

709
706 - 712

+11 (+1.54%)

May 3

720
717 - 723

+11 (+1.54%)

May 4

731
728 - 734

+11 (+1.54%)

Deaths by coronavirus

41Apr 2432Apr 1555May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Burkina Faso of about 2.82% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 25 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Burkina Faso assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

32

-

Apr 16

32

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

35

+3 (+9.38%)

Apr 18

36

+1 (+2.86%)

Apr 19

36

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

38

+2 (+5.56%)

Apr 21

38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

39

+1 (+2.63%)

Apr 23

41

+2 (+5.13%)

Apr 24

41

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

43
42 - 43

+2 (+3.87%)

Apr 26

44
43 - 45

+1 (+2.82%)

Apr 27

45
44 - 46

+1 (+2.82%)

Apr 28

46
45 - 47

+1 (+2.82%)

Apr 29

48
47 - 49

+1 (+2.82%)

Apr 30

49
48 - 50

+1 (+2.82%)

May 1

50
49 - 51

+1 (+2.82%)

May 2

52
51 - 53

+1 (+2.82%)

May 3

53
52 - 54

+1 (+2.82%)

May 4

55
54 - 56

+1 (+2.82%)

What is the mortality rate in Burkina Faso?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

6062031020120Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Burkina Faso, approx. 1.12% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 19,800,000 people in Burkina Faso, that corresponds to about 606 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

6.5%6.7%6.7%6.8%7.1%7.1%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.6%7.8%8.2%8.2%8.5%9.3%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Burkina Faso would be approx. 7.4%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Burkina Faso?

Coronavirus infections

2.65%0.738%2.01%1.44%1.95%0.868%3.27%1.5%1.15%2.11%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Burkina Faso in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

6.67%0%9.38%2.86%0%5.56%0%2.63%5.13%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Burkina Faso in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Burkina Faso develop?

High standardMedium standard3Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Burkina Faso. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,930 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,960 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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