Coronavirus in Bulgaria

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Bulgaria and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,230Apr 24747Apr 152,630May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Bulgaria of about 8.06% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8.9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Bulgaria assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

747

-

Apr 16

800

+53 (+7.1%)

Apr 17

846

+46 (+5.75%)

Apr 18

878

+32 (+3.78%)

Apr 19

894

+16 (+1.82%)

Apr 20

929

+35 (+3.91%)

Apr 21

975

+46 (+4.95%)

Apr 22

1,020

+49 (+5.03%)

Apr 23

1,100

+73 (+7.13%)

Apr 24

1,230

+137 (+12.5%)

Apr 25

1,310
1,260 - 1,360

+75 (+6.07%)

Apr 26

1,410
1,370 - 1,460

+106 (+8.06%)

Apr 27

1,530
1,480 - 1,580

+114 (+8.06%)

Apr 28

1,650
1,600 - 1,710

+123 (+8.06%)

Apr 29

1,790
1,720 - 1,850

+133 (+8.06%)

Apr 30

1,930
1,860 - 2,000

+144 (+8.06%)

May 1

2,080
2,010 - 2,160

+156 (+8.06%)

May 2

2,250
2,180 - 2,330

+168 (+8.06%)

May 3

2,430
2,350 - 2,520

+182 (+8.06%)

May 4

2,630
2,540 - 2,720

+196 (+8.06%)

Deaths by coronavirus

54Apr 2436Apr 15100May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bulgaria of about 6.25% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 11 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bulgaria assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

36

-

Apr 16

38

+2 (+5.56%)

Apr 17

41

+3 (+7.89%)

Apr 18

41

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

42

+1 (+2.44%)

Apr 20

43

+1 (+2.38%)

Apr 21

45

+2 (+4.65%)

Apr 22

49

+4 (+8.89%)

Apr 23

52

+3 (+6.12%)

Apr 24

54

+2 (+3.85%)

Apr 25

58
57 - 59

+4 (+7.5%)

Apr 26

62
60 - 63

+4 (+6.25%)

Apr 27

66
64 - 67

+4 (+6.25%)

Apr 28

70
68 - 71

+4 (+6.25%)

Apr 29

74
72 - 76

+4 (+6.25%)

Apr 30

79
77 - 80

+5 (+6.25%)

May 1

84
82 - 86

+5 (+6.25%)

May 2

89
87 - 91

+5 (+6.25%)

May 3

94
92 - 97

+6 (+6.25%)

May 4

100
98 - 103

+6 (+6.25%)

What is the mortality rate in Bulgaria?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2791230112432Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Bulgaria, approx. 1.45% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 7,020,000 people in Bulgaria, that corresponds to about 279 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4.4%4.9%5.3%5.5%5.8%6%6.2%6.4%6.8%7.2%7.6%7.9%8%8.2%8.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Bulgaria would be approx. 6.4%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Bulgaria?

Coronavirus infections

4.77%7.1%5.75%3.78%1.82%3.91%4.95%5.03%7.13%12.5%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Bulgaria in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

2.86%5.56%7.89%0%2.44%2.38%4.65%8.89%6.12%3.85%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bulgaria in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Bulgaria develop?

High standardMedium standard12Apr 251,050Jun 182,110Jun 27

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Bulgaria. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,110 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,050 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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