Coronavirus in Brazil

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Brazil and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

54,000Apr 2428,300Apr 15116,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Brazil of about 8% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Brazil assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

28,300

-

Apr 16

30,400

+2,110 (+7.43%)

Apr 17

33,700

+3,260 (+10.7%)

Apr 18

36,700

+2,980 (+8.84%)

Apr 19

38,700

+2,000 (+5.44%)

Apr 20

40,700

+2,090 (+5.4%)

Apr 21

43,100

+2,340 (+5.73%)

Apr 22

45,800

+2,680 (+6.22%)

Apr 23

50,000

+4,280 (+9.35%)

Apr 24

54,000

+4,010 (+8.01%)

Apr 25

58,200
57,500 - 59,000

+4,200 (+7.77%)

Apr 26

62,900
62,100 - 63,700

+4,660 (+8%)

Apr 27

67,900
67,100 - 68,800

+5,030 (+8%)

Apr 28

73,400
72,500 - 74,300

+5,430 (+8%)

Apr 29

79,200
78,300 - 80,200

+5,870 (+8%)

Apr 30

85,600
84,500 - 86,700

+6,340 (+8%)

May 1

92,400
91,300 - 93,600

+6,850 (+8%)

May 2

99,800
98,600 - 101,000

+7,390 (+8%)

May 3

108,000
106,000 - 109,000

+7,990 (+8%)

May 4

116,000
115,000 - 118,000

+8,620 (+8%)

Deaths by coronavirus

3,700Apr 241,740Apr 1510,400May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Brazil of about 11% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.7 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Brazil assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,740

-

Apr 16

1,920

+188 (+10.8%)

Apr 17

2,140

+217 (+11.3%)

Apr 18

2,350

+213 (+9.95%)

Apr 19

2,460

+108 (+4.59%)

Apr 20

2,590

+125 (+5.08%)

Apr 21

2,740

+154 (+5.95%)

Apr 22

2,910

+165 (+6.02%)

Apr 23

3,330

+425 (+14.6%)

Apr 24

3,700

+373 (+11.2%)

Apr 25

4,080
3,950 - 4,220

+379 (+10.2%)

Apr 26

4,530
4,380 - 4,690

+447 (+11%)

Apr 27

5,030
4,860 - 5,200

+496 (+11%)

Apr 28

5,580
5,390 - 5,770

+551 (+11%)

Apr 29

6,190
5,980 - 6,400

+611 (+11%)

Apr 30

6,870
6,640 - 7,100

+678 (+11%)

May 1

7,620
7,370 - 7,880

+752 (+11%)

May 2

8,450
8,170 - 8,750

+835 (+11%)

May 3

9,380
9,070 - 9,710

+926 (+11%)

May 4

10,400
10,100 - 10,800

+1,030 (+11%)

What is the mortality rate in Brazil?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3,750204188217213108125154165425373Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Brazil, approx. 0.654% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 209,000,000 people in Brazil, that corresponds to about 3,750 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

6.9%7.4%8.1%8.6%9.1%9.6%10%11%12%13%15%16%17%18%19%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Brazil would be approx. 11%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Brazil?

Coronavirus infections

12.1%7.43%10.7%8.84%5.44%5.4%5.73%6.22%9.35%8.01%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Brazil in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

13.3%10.8%11.3%9.95%4.59%5.08%5.95%6.02%14.6%11.2%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Brazil in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Brazil develop?

High standardMedium standard696Apr 2531,400Jun 1362,800Jun 22

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Brazil. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (62,800 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (31,400 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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