Coronavirus in Bolivia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Bolivia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

807Apr 24397Apr 152,240May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Bolivia of about 11% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.6 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Bolivia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

397

-

Apr 16

441

+44 (+11.1%)

Apr 17

465

+24 (+5.44%)

Apr 18

493

+28 (+6.02%)

Apr 19

520

+27 (+5.48%)

Apr 20

564

+44 (+8.46%)

Apr 21

598

+34 (+6.03%)

Apr 22

609

+11 (+1.84%)

Apr 23

703

+94 (+15.4%)

Apr 24

807

+104 (+14.8%)

Apr 25

875
819 - 935

+68 (+8.42%)

Apr 26

971
909 - 1,040

+96 (+11%)

Apr 27

1,080
1,010 - 1,150

+107 (+11%)

Apr 28

1,200
1,120 - 1,280

+118 (+11%)

Apr 29

1,330
1,240 - 1,420

+131 (+11%)

Apr 30

1,470
1,380 - 1,580

+146 (+11%)

May 1

1,640
1,530 - 1,750

+162 (+11%)

May 2

1,820
1,700 - 1,940

+180 (+11%)

May 3

2,020
1,890 - 2,150

+200 (+11%)

May 4

2,240
2,090 - 2,390

+221 (+11%)

Deaths by coronavirus

44Apr 2428Apr 15114May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bolivia of about 9.68% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.5 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bolivia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

28

-

Apr 16

29

+1 (+3.57%)

Apr 17

31

+2 (+6.9%)

Apr 18

31

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

32

+1 (+3.23%)

Apr 20

33

+1 (+3.13%)

Apr 21

34

+1 (+3.03%)

Apr 22

37

+3 (+8.82%)

Apr 23

43

+6 (+16.2%)

Apr 24

44

+1 (+2.33%)

Apr 25

49
47 - 52

+5 (+12.5%)

Apr 26

54
51 - 57

+5 (+9.68%)

Apr 27

60
56 - 63

+5 (+9.68%)

Apr 28

65
62 - 69

+6 (+9.68%)

Apr 29

72
68 - 75

+6 (+9.68%)

Apr 30

79
74 - 83

+7 (+9.68%)

May 1

86
82 - 91

+8 (+9.68%)

May 2

94
90 - 100

+8 (+9.68%)

May 3

104
98 - 109

+9 (+9.68%)

May 4

114
108 - 120

+10 (+9.68%)

What is the mortality rate in Bolivia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2050120111361Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Bolivia, approx. 0.659% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 11,400,000 people in Bolivia, that corresponds to about 205 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

5.5%6.3%7.2%7.4%7.8%8.5%8.9%9.5%10%11%12%13%15%16%16%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Bolivia would be approx. 9.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Bolivia?

Coronavirus infections

12.1%11.1%5.44%6.02%5.48%8.46%6.03%1.84%15.4%14.8%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Bolivia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%3.57%6.9%0%3.23%3.13%3.03%8.82%16.2%2.33%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bolivia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Bolivia develop?

High standardMedium standard11Apr 251,700Jun 113,410Jun 17

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Bolivia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,410 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,700 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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