Coronavirus in Belize

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Belize and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

18Apr 2418Apr 1518May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Belize assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

18

-

Apr 16

18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

18
18 - 18

+0 (+-2.22e-14%)

Apr 26

18
18 - 18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

18
18 - 18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

18
18 - 18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

18
18 - 18

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

18
18 - 18

+0 (+0%)

May 1

18
18 - 18

+0 (+0%)

May 2

18
18 - 18

+0 (+0%)

May 3

18
18 - 18

+0 (+0%)

May 4

18
18 - 18

+0 (+0%)

Deaths by coronavirus

2Apr 242Apr 152May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Belize of about -1.46e-10% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every -,480,000,000,000 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Belize assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

2

-

Apr 16

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-3.64e-10%)

Apr 26

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-1.46e-10%)

Apr 27

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-1.46e-10%)

Apr 28

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-1.46e-10%)

Apr 29

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-1.46e-10%)

Apr 30

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-1.46e-10%)

May 1

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-1.46e-10%)

May 2

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-1.46e-10%)

May 3

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-1.46e-10%)

May 4

2
2 - 2

+0 (+-1.46e-10%)

What is the mortality rate in Belize?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

60000000000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Belize, approx. 0.595% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 383,000 people in Belize, that corresponds to about 6 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%14%15%20%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Belize would be approx. 11%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Belize?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Belize in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Belize in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Belize develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Belize. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (115 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (57 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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