Coronavirus in Belgium

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Belgium and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

44,300Apr 2433,600Apr 1557,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Belgium of about 2.6% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 27 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Belgium assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

33,600

-

Apr 16

34,800

+1,240 (+3.68%)

Apr 17

36,100

+1,330 (+3.82%)

Apr 18

37,200

+1,050 (+2.89%)

Apr 19

38,500

+1,310 (+3.53%)

Apr 20

40,000

+1,490 (+3.86%)

Apr 21

41,000

+973 (+2.43%)

Apr 22

41,900

+933 (+2.28%)

Apr 23

42,800

+908 (+2.17%)

Apr 24

44,300

+1,500 (+3.5%)

Apr 25

45,300
45,000 - 45,600

+985 (+2.22%)

Apr 26

46,500
46,100 - 46,800

+1,180 (+2.6%)

Apr 27

47,700
47,300 - 48,000

+1,210 (+2.6%)

Apr 28

48,900
48,600 - 49,200

+1,240 (+2.6%)

Apr 29

50,200
49,800 - 50,500

+1,270 (+2.6%)

Apr 30

51,500
51,100 - 51,800

+1,300 (+2.6%)

May 1

52,800
52,500 - 53,200

+1,340 (+2.6%)

May 2

54,200
53,800 - 54,500

+1,370 (+2.6%)

May 3

55,600
55,200 - 56,000

+1,410 (+2.6%)

May 4

57,000
56,700 - 57,400

+1,440 (+2.6%)

Deaths by coronavirus

6,680Apr 244,440Apr 159,590May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Belgium of about 3.65% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 19 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Belgium assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

4,440

-

Apr 16

4,860

+417 (+9.39%)

Apr 17

5,160

+306 (+6.3%)

Apr 18

5,450

+290 (+5.62%)

Apr 19

5,680

+230 (+4.22%)

Apr 20

5,830

+145 (+2.55%)

Apr 21

6,000

+170 (+2.92%)

Apr 22

6,260

+264 (+4.4%)

Apr 23

6,490

+228 (+3.64%)

Apr 24

6,680

+189 (+2.91%)

Apr 25

6,950
6,900 - 7,000

+269 (+4.02%)

Apr 26

7,200
7,150 - 7,250

+254 (+3.65%)

Apr 27

7,460
7,410 - 7,520

+263 (+3.65%)

Apr 28

7,740
7,680 - 7,790

+272 (+3.65%)

Apr 29

8,020
7,960 - 8,080

+282 (+3.65%)

Apr 30

8,310
8,250 - 8,370

+293 (+3.65%)

May 1

8,610
8,550 - 8,680

+303 (+3.65%)

May 2

8,930
8,860 - 8,990

+314 (+3.65%)

May 3

9,250
9,190 - 9,320

+326 (+3.65%)

May 4

9,590
9,520 - 9,660

+338 (+3.65%)

What is the mortality rate in Belgium?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

304283417306290230145170264228189Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Belgium, approx. 0.97% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 11,400,000 people in Belgium, that corresponds to about 304 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

15%16%16%16%17%17%18%18%19%20%21%22%23%24%25%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Belgium would be approx. 18%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Belgium?

Coronavirus infections

7.89%3.68%3.82%2.89%3.53%3.86%2.43%2.28%2.17%3.5%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Belgium in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

6.81%9.39%6.3%5.62%4.22%2.55%2.92%4.4%3.64%2.91%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Belgium in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Belgium develop?

High standardMedium standard294Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Belgium. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,430 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,710 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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