Coronavirus in Belarus

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Belarus and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

8,770Apr 243,730Apr 1521,500May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Belarus of about 9.37% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.7 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Belarus assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3,730

-

Apr 16

4,200

+476 (+12.8%)

Apr 17

4,780

+575 (+13.7%)

Apr 18

4,780

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

4,780

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

6,260

+1,490 (+31.1%)

Apr 21

6,720

+459 (+7.33%)

Apr 22

7,280

+558 (+8.3%)

Apr 23

8,020

+741 (+10.2%)

Apr 24

8,770

+751 (+9.36%)

Apr 25

9,580
9,510 - 9,650

+810 (+9.23%)

Apr 26

10,500
10,400 - 10,600

+898 (+9.37%)

Apr 27

11,500
11,400 - 11,500

+982 (+9.37%)

Apr 28

12,500
12,400 - 12,600

+1,070 (+9.37%)

Apr 29

13,700
13,600 - 13,800

+1,170 (+9.37%)

Apr 30

15,000
14,900 - 15,100

+1,280 (+9.37%)

May 1

16,400
16,300 - 16,500

+1,400 (+9.37%)

May 2

17,900
17,800 - 18,100

+1,540 (+9.37%)

May 3

19,600
19,500 - 19,800

+1,680 (+9.37%)

May 4

21,500
21,300 - 21,600

+1,840 (+9.37%)

Deaths by coronavirus

63Apr 2436Apr 1598May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Belarus of about 4.51% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 16 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Belarus assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

36

-

Apr 16

40

+4 (+11.1%)

Apr 17

42

+2 (+5%)

Apr 18

45

+3 (+7.14%)

Apr 19

47

+2 (+4.44%)

Apr 20

51

+4 (+8.51%)

Apr 21

55

+4 (+7.84%)

Apr 22

58

+3 (+5.45%)

Apr 23

60

+2 (+3.45%)

Apr 24

63

+3 (+5%)

Apr 25

66
65 - 66

+3 (+4.45%)

Apr 26

69
68 - 69

+3 (+4.51%)

Apr 27

72
71 - 72

+3 (+4.51%)

Apr 28

75
75 - 76

+3 (+4.51%)

Apr 29

79
78 - 79

+3 (+4.51%)

Apr 30

82
81 - 83

+4 (+4.51%)

May 1

86
85 - 86

+4 (+4.51%)

May 2

90
89 - 90

+4 (+4.51%)

May 3

94
93 - 94

+4 (+4.51%)

May 4

98
97 - 99

+4 (+4.51%)

What is the mortality rate in Belarus?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3433423244323Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Belarus, approx. 1.32% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 9,490,000 people in Belarus, that corresponds to about 343 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.72%0.79%0.87%0.94%1%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.2%2.4%2.8%3.2%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Belarus would be approx. 1.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Belarus?

Coronavirus infections

13.6%12.8%13.7%0%0%31.1%7.33%8.3%10.2%9.36%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Belarus in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

9.09%11.1%5%7.14%4.44%8.51%7.84%5.45%3.45%5%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Belarus in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Belarus develop?

High standardMedium standard133Apr 251,420May 222,850May 29

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Belarus. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,850 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,420 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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