Coronavirus in Bangladesh

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Bangladesh and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

4,690Apr 241,230Apr 1513,800May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Bangladesh of about 11.5% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.4 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Bangladesh assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,230

-

Apr 16

1,570

+341 (+27.7%)

Apr 17

1,840

+266 (+16.9%)

Apr 18

2,140

+306 (+16.6%)

Apr 19

2,460

+312 (+14.6%)

Apr 20

2,950

+492 (+20%)

Apr 21

3,380

+434 (+14.7%)

Apr 22

3,770

+390 (+11.5%)

Apr 23

4,190

+414 (+11%)

Apr 24

4,690

+503 (+12%)

Apr 25

5,220
5,200 - 5,240

+528 (+11.3%)

Apr 26

5,810
5,790 - 5,840

+598 (+11.5%)

Apr 27

6,480
6,460 - 6,510

+666 (+11.5%)

Apr 28

7,220
7,190 - 7,250

+742 (+11.5%)

Apr 29

8,050
8,020 - 8,080

+827 (+11.5%)

Apr 30

8,970
8,940 - 9,010

+922 (+11.5%)

May 1

10,000
9,960 - 10,000

+1,030 (+11.5%)

May 2

11,100
11,100 - 11,200

+1,150 (+11.5%)

May 3

12,400
12,400 - 12,500

+1,280 (+11.5%)

May 4

13,800
13,800 - 13,900

+1,420 (+11.5%)

Deaths by coronavirus

131Apr 2450Apr 15237May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bangladesh of about 5.98% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 12 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bangladesh assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

50

-

Apr 16

60

+10 (+20%)

Apr 17

75

+15 (+25%)

Apr 18

84

+9 (+12%)

Apr 19

91

+7 (+8.33%)

Apr 20

101

+10 (+11%)

Apr 21

110

+9 (+8.91%)

Apr 22

120

+10 (+9.09%)

Apr 23

127

+7 (+5.83%)

Apr 24

131

+4 (+3.15%)

Apr 25

141
137 - 145

+10 (+7.45%)

Apr 26

149
145 - 153

+8 (+5.98%)

Apr 27

158
154 - 163

+9 (+5.98%)

Apr 28

168
163 - 172

+9 (+5.98%)

Apr 29

178
173 - 183

+10 (+5.98%)

Apr 30

188
183 - 194

+11 (+5.98%)

May 1

199
194 - 205

+11 (+5.98%)

May 2

211
206 - 217

+12 (+5.98%)

May 3

224
218 - 230

+13 (+5.98%)

May 4

237
231 - 244

+13 (+5.98%)

What is the mortality rate in Bangladesh?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2,49041015971091074Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Bangladesh, approx. 0.564% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 161,000,000 people in Bangladesh, that corresponds to about 2,490 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.8%3.1%3.5%3.9%4.4%5.3%6.1%7.1%8.3%11%13%16%21%27%31%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Bangladesh would be approx. 7.1%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Bangladesh?

Coronavirus infections

21.6%27.7%16.9%16.6%14.6%20%14.7%11.5%11%12%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Bangladesh in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

8.7%20%25%12%8.33%11%8.91%9.09%5.83%3.15%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bangladesh in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Bangladesh develop?

High standardMedium standard88Apr 2524,200Jun 1748,400Jun 23

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Bangladesh. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (48,400 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (24,200 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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