Coronavirus in Bahamas

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Bahamas and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

73Apr 2449Apr 15115May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Bahamas of about 4.61% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 15 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Bahamas assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

49

-

Apr 16

53

+4 (+8.16%)

Apr 17

54

+1 (+1.89%)

Apr 18

55

+1 (+1.85%)

Apr 19

55

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

60

+5 (+9.09%)

Apr 21

65

+5 (+8.33%)

Apr 22

65

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

72

+7 (+10.8%)

Apr 24

73

+1 (+1.39%)

Apr 25

77
74 - 80

+4 (+5.25%)

Apr 26

80
77 - 84

+4 (+4.61%)

Apr 27

84
81 - 88

+4 (+4.61%)

Apr 28

88
84 - 92

+4 (+4.61%)

Apr 29

92
88 - 96

+4 (+4.61%)

Apr 30

96
92 - 100

+4 (+4.61%)

May 1

101
96 - 105

+4 (+4.61%)

May 2

105
101 - 110

+5 (+4.61%)

May 3

110
106 - 115

+5 (+4.61%)

May 4

115
110 - 120

+5 (+4.61%)

Deaths by coronavirus

11Apr 248Apr 1525May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bahamas of about 8.36% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8.6 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bahamas assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

8

-

Apr 16

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

9

+1 (+12.5%)

Apr 18

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

11

+2 (+22.2%)

Apr 24

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

12
11 - 13

+1 (+10.6%)

Apr 26

13
12 - 14

+1 (+8.36%)

Apr 27

14
13 - 16

+1 (+8.36%)

Apr 28

15
14 - 17

+1 (+8.36%)

Apr 29

17
15 - 18

+1 (+8.36%)

Apr 30

18
17 - 20

+1 (+8.36%)

May 1

20
18 - 22

+2 (+8.36%)

May 2

21
19 - 23

+2 (+8.36%)

May 3

23
21 - 25

+2 (+8.36%)

May 4

25
23 - 27

+2 (+8.36%)

What is the mortality rate in Bahamas?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

70010000020Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Bahamas, approx. 0.7% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 386,000 people in Bahamas, that corresponds to about 7 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

15%15%17%17%18%20%20%20%21%22%22%23%24%24%26%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Bahamas would be approx. 20%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Bahamas?

Coronavirus infections

0%8.16%1.89%1.85%0%9.09%8.33%0%10.8%1.39%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Bahamas in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%12.5%0%0%0%0%0%22.2%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Bahamas in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Bahamas develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Bahamas. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (116 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (58 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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