Coronavirus in Australia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Australia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

6,680Apr 246,440Apr 157,210May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Australia of about 0.765% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 91 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Australia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6,440

-

Apr 16

6,460

+22 (+0.342%)

Apr 17

6,520

+60 (+0.929%)

Apr 18

6,550

+25 (+0.383%)

Apr 19

6,550

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

6,550

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

6,550

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

6,550

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

6,660

+114 (+1.74%)

Apr 24

6,680

+16 (+0.24%)

Apr 25

6,730
6,690 - 6,780

+58 (+0.867%)

Apr 26

6,790
6,740 - 6,840

+52 (+0.765%)

Apr 27

6,840
6,790 - 6,890

+52 (+0.765%)

Apr 28

6,890
6,840 - 6,940

+52 (+0.765%)

Apr 29

6,940
6,890 - 6,990

+53 (+0.765%)

Apr 30

7,000
6,950 - 7,050

+53 (+0.765%)

May 1

7,050
7,000 - 7,100

+54 (+0.765%)

May 2

7,100
7,050 - 7,160

+54 (+0.765%)

May 3

7,160
7,110 - 7,210

+54 (+0.765%)

May 4

7,210
7,160 - 7,270

+55 (+0.765%)

Deaths by coronavirus

79Apr 2463Apr 15144May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Australia of about 6.26% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 11 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Australia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

63

-

Apr 16

63

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

66

+3 (+4.76%)

Apr 18

67

+1 (+1.52%)

Apr 19

67

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

67

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

67

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

67

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

75

+8 (+11.9%)

Apr 24

79

+4 (+5.33%)

Apr 25

84
80 - 88

+5 (+5.8%)

Apr 26

89
85 - 93

+5 (+6.26%)

Apr 27

94
90 - 99

+6 (+6.26%)

Apr 28

100
96 - 105

+6 (+6.26%)

Apr 29

107
102 - 112

+6 (+6.26%)

Apr 30

113
108 - 119

+7 (+6.26%)

May 1

120
115 - 126

+7 (+6.26%)

May 2

128
122 - 134

+8 (+6.26%)

May 3

136
130 - 142

+8 (+6.26%)

May 4

144
138 - 151

+9 (+6.26%)

What is the mortality rate in Australia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

4841031000084Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Australia, approx. 0.707% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 25,000,000 people in Australia, that corresponds to about 484 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.3%1.3%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Australia would be approx. 1.2%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Australia?

Coronavirus infections

0.39%0.342%0.929%0.383%0%0%0%0%1.74%0.24%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Australia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

1.61%0%4.76%1.52%0%0%0%0%11.9%5.33%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Australia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Australia develop?

High standardMedium standard8Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Australia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (7,500 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,750 total).

Coronavirus in Australian Capital Territory

How were the past few days in Australian Capital Territory and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

105Apr 24103Apr 15112May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Australian Capital Territory of about 0.676% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 100 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Australian Capital Territory assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

103

-

Apr 16

103

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

103

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

103

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

103

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

103

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

103

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

103

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

104

+1 (+0.971%)

Apr 24

105

+1 (+0.962%)

Apr 25

106
105 - 106

+0 (+0.484%)

Apr 26

106
106 - 107

+0 (+0.676%)

Apr 27

107
106 - 108

+0 (+0.676%)

Apr 28

108
107 - 108

+0 (+0.676%)

Apr 29

108
108 - 109

+0 (+0.676%)

Apr 30

109
109 - 110

+0 (+0.676%)

May 1

110
109 - 110

+0 (+0.676%)

May 2

111
110 - 111

+0 (+0.676%)

May 3

111
111 - 112

+0 (+0.676%)

May 4

112
112 - 113

+0 (+0.676%)

Deaths by coronavirus

3Apr 243Apr 153May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Australian Capital Territory of about -2.91e-10% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every -,240,000,000,000 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Australian Capital Territory assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3

-

Apr 16

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-7.28e-10%)

Apr 26

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 27

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 28

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 29

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 30

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 1

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 2

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 3

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 4

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

What is the mortality rate in Australian Capital Territory?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Australian Capital Territory would be approx. 2.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Australian Capital Territory?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0.971%0.962%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Australian Capital Territory in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

50%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Australian Capital Territory in the previous days.

Coronavirus in New South Wales

How were the past few days in New South Wales and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

2,980Apr 242,890Apr 153,210May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in New South Wales of about 0.741% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 94 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in New South Wales assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

2,890

-

Apr 16

2,900

+11 (+0.381%)

Apr 17

2,930

+29 (+1%)

Apr 18

2,930

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

2,930

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

2,930

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

2,930

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

2,930

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

2,980

+50 (+1.71%)

Apr 24

2,980

+6 (+0.202%)

Apr 25

3,010
2,990 - 3,030

+25 (+0.851%)

Apr 26

3,030
3,010 - 3,050

+22 (+0.741%)

Apr 27

3,050
3,030 - 3,070

+22 (+0.741%)

Apr 28

3,070
3,050 - 3,100

+23 (+0.741%)

Apr 29

3,100
3,080 - 3,120

+23 (+0.741%)

Apr 30

3,120
3,100 - 3,140

+23 (+0.741%)

May 1

3,140
3,120 - 3,170

+23 (+0.741%)

May 2

3,170
3,140 - 3,190

+23 (+0.741%)

May 3

3,190
3,170 - 3,210

+23 (+0.741%)

May 4

3,210
3,190 - 3,240

+24 (+0.741%)

Deaths by coronavirus

33Apr 2425Apr 1580May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in New South Wales of about 9.32% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in New South Wales assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

25

-

Apr 16

25

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

26

+1 (+4%)

Apr 18

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

31

+5 (+19.2%)

Apr 24

33

+2 (+6.45%)

Apr 25

36
34 - 39

+3 (+9.19%)

Apr 26

39
37 - 42

+3 (+9.32%)

Apr 27

43
40 - 46

+4 (+9.32%)

Apr 28

47
44 - 51

+4 (+9.32%)

Apr 29

51
48 - 55

+4 (+9.32%)

Apr 30

56
52 - 60

+5 (+9.32%)

May 1

62
57 - 66

+5 (+9.32%)

May 2

67
63 - 72

+6 (+9.32%)

May 3

74
68 - 79

+6 (+9.32%)

May 4

80
75 - 86

+7 (+9.32%)

What is the mortality rate in New South Wales?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in New South Wales would be approx. 1.1%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in New South Wales?

Coronavirus infections

0.557%0.381%1%0%0%0%0%0%1.71%0.202%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in New South Wales in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%4%0%0%0%0%0%19.2%6.45%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in New South Wales in the previous days.

Coronavirus in Northern Territory

How were the past few days in Northern Territory and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

28Apr 2428Apr 1527May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Northern Territory of about -0.363% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every -,190 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Northern Territory assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

28

-

Apr 16

28

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

28

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

28

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

28

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

28

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

28

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

28

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

27

+-1 (+-3.57%)

Apr 24

28

+1 (+3.7%)

Apr 25

27
27 - 28

+0 (+-1.8%)

Apr 26

27
27 - 28

+0 (+-0.363%)

Apr 27

27
26 - 28

+0 (+-0.363%)

Apr 28

27
26 - 28

+0 (+-0.363%)

Apr 29

27
26 - 28

+0 (+-0.363%)

Apr 30

27
26 - 28

+0 (+-0.363%)

May 1

27
26 - 28

+0 (+-0.363%)

May 2

27
26 - 28

+0 (+-0.363%)

May 3

27
26 - 28

+0 (+-0.363%)

May 4

27
26 - 27

+0 (+-0.363%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Apr 240Apr 15

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Northern Territory assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

0

-

Apr 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Northern Territory?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Northern Territory would be approx. 0%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Northern Territory?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-3.57%3.7%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Northern Territory in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Northern Territory in the previous days.

Coronavirus in Queensland

How were the past few days in Queensland and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,030Apr 24999Apr 151,070May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Queensland of about 0.432% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 160 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Queensland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

999

-

Apr 16

1,000

+2 (+0.2%)

Apr 17

1,010

+6 (+0.599%)

Apr 18

1,020

+8 (+0.794%)

Apr 19

1,020

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

1,020

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

1,020

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

1,020

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

1,030

+11 (+1.08%)

Apr 24

1,030

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

1,030
1,030 - 1,040

+6 (+0.54%)

Apr 26

1,040
1,030 - 1,040

+4 (+0.432%)

Apr 27

1,040
1,040 - 1,050

+4 (+0.432%)

Apr 28

1,040
1,040 - 1,050

+4 (+0.432%)

Apr 29

1,050
1,040 - 1,050

+5 (+0.432%)

Apr 30

1,050
1,050 - 1,060

+5 (+0.432%)

May 1

1,060
1,050 - 1,060

+5 (+0.432%)

May 2

1,060
1,060 - 1,070

+5 (+0.432%)

May 3

1,070
1,060 - 1,070

+5 (+0.432%)

May 4

1,070
1,070 - 1,080

+5 (+0.432%)

Deaths by coronavirus

6Apr 245Apr 156May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Queensland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5

-

Apr 16

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

6

+1 (+20%)

Apr 19

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 26

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

May 1

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

May 2

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

May 3

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

May 4

6
6 - 6

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Queensland?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.58%0.58%0.59%0.59%0.59%0.59%0.59%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.61%0.61%0.62%0.62%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Queensland would be approx. 0.6%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Queensland?

Coronavirus infections

0.1%0.2%0.599%0.794%0%0%0%0%1.08%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Queensland in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%20%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Queensland in the previous days.

Coronavirus in South Australia

How were the past few days in South Australia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

438Apr 24433Apr 15451May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in South Australia of about 0.275% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 250 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in South Australia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

433

-

Apr 16

433

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

435

+2 (+0.462%)

Apr 18

435

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

435

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

435

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

435

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

435

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

438

+3 (+0.69%)

Apr 24

438

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

440
438 - 441

+2 (+0.344%)

Apr 26

441
439 - 442

+1 (+0.275%)

Apr 27

442
441 - 443

+1 (+0.275%)

Apr 28

443
442 - 445

+1 (+0.275%)

Apr 29

444
443 - 446

+1 (+0.275%)

Apr 30

446
444 - 447

+1 (+0.275%)

May 1

447
445 - 448

+1 (+0.275%)

May 2

448
447 - 449

+1 (+0.275%)

May 3

449
448 - 451

+1 (+0.275%)

May 4

451
449 - 452

+1 (+0.275%)

Deaths by coronavirus

4Apr 244Apr 154May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in South Australia of about -2.91e-10% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every -,240,000,000,000 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in South Australia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

4

-

Apr 16

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-7.28e-10%)

Apr 26

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 27

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 28

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 29

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 30

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 1

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 2

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 3

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 4

4
4 - 4

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

What is the mortality rate in South Australia?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.91%0.91%0.92%0.92%0.92%0.92%0.92%0.92%0.92%0.92%0.92%0.93%0.93%0.93%0.93%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in South Australia would be approx. 0.92%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in South Australia?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%0.462%0%0%0%0%0%0.69%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in South Australia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in South Australia in the previous days.

Coronavirus in Tasmania

How were the past few days in Tasmania and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

207Apr 24165Apr 15367May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Tasmania of about 5.75% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 12 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Tasmania assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

165

-

Apr 16

169

+4 (+2.42%)

Apr 17

180

+11 (+6.51%)

Apr 18

180

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

180

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

180

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

180

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

180

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

207

+27 (+15%)

Apr 24

207

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

222
209 - 236

+15 (+7.24%)

Apr 26

235
221 - 250

+13 (+5.75%)

Apr 27

248
233 - 264

+13 (+5.75%)

Apr 28

263
247 - 279

+14 (+5.75%)

Apr 29

278
261 - 296

+15 (+5.75%)

Apr 30

294
276 - 313

+16 (+5.75%)

May 1

310
292 - 330

+17 (+5.75%)

May 2

328
308 - 349

+18 (+5.75%)

May 3

347
326 - 370

+19 (+5.75%)

May 4

367
345 - 391

+20 (+5.75%)

Deaths by coronavirus

9Apr 246Apr 1521May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Tasmania of about 9.28% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Tasmania assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6

-

Apr 16

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

7

+1 (+16.7%)

Apr 18

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

8

+1 (+14.3%)

Apr 24

9

+1 (+12.5%)

Apr 25

10
9 - 10

+0 (+6.9%)

Apr 26

11
10 - 11

+0 (+9.28%)

Apr 27

11
11 - 12

+0 (+9.28%)

Apr 28

13
12 - 13

+1 (+9.28%)

Apr 29

14
13 - 15

+1 (+9.28%)

Apr 30

15
14 - 16

+1 (+9.28%)

May 1

16
15 - 18

+1 (+9.28%)

May 2

18
17 - 19

+2 (+9.28%)

May 3

20
18 - 21

+2 (+9.28%)

May 4

21
20 - 23

+2 (+9.28%)

What is the mortality rate in Tasmania?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4.3%4.3%5%5%5%5%5%5%5.3%5.5%5.5%6.3%6.8%6.8%7.4%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Tasmania would be approx. 5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Tasmania?

Coronavirus infections

0%2.42%6.51%0%0%0%0%0%15%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Tasmania in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%16.7%0%0%0%0%0%14.3%12.5%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Tasmania in the previous days.

Coronavirus in Victoria

How were the past few days in Victoria and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,340Apr 241,300Apr 151,440May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Victoria of about 0.679% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 100 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Victoria assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,300

-

Apr 16

1,300

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

1,300

+3 (+0.231%)

Apr 18

1,320

+17 (+1.31%)

Apr 19

1,320

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

1,320

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

1,320

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

1,320

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

1,340

+18 (+1.36%)

Apr 24

1,340

+6 (+0.449%)

Apr 25

1,350
1,340 - 1,360

+9 (+0.68%)

Apr 26

1,360
1,350 - 1,370

+9 (+0.679%)

Apr 27

1,370
1,360 - 1,380

+9 (+0.679%)

Apr 28

1,380
1,370 - 1,390

+9 (+0.679%)

Apr 29

1,390
1,380 - 1,400

+9 (+0.679%)

Apr 30

1,400
1,390 - 1,410

+9 (+0.679%)

May 1

1,410
1,400 - 1,420

+9 (+0.679%)

May 2

1,420
1,410 - 1,430

+10 (+0.679%)

May 3

1,430
1,420 - 1,440

+10 (+0.679%)

May 4

1,440
1,430 - 1,440

+10 (+0.679%)

Deaths by coronavirus

16Apr 2414Apr 1528May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Victoria of about 5.49% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 13 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Victoria assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

14

-

Apr 16

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

16

+2 (+14.3%)

Apr 24

16

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

17
16 - 18

+1 (+6.9%)

Apr 26

18
17 - 19

+0 (+5.49%)

Apr 27

19
18 - 20

+0 (+5.49%)

Apr 28

20
19 - 21

+1 (+5.49%)

Apr 29

21
20 - 22

+1 (+5.49%)

Apr 30

22
21 - 24

+1 (+5.49%)

May 1

24
22 - 25

+1 (+5.49%)

May 2

25
23 - 26

+1 (+5.49%)

May 3

26
25 - 28

+1 (+5.49%)

May 4

28
26 - 29

+1 (+5.49%)

What is the mortality rate in Victoria?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.3%1.3%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Victoria would be approx. 1.2%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Victoria?

Coronavirus infections

0.62%0%0.231%1.31%0%0%0%0%1.36%0.449%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Victoria in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%14.3%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Victoria in the previous days.

Coronavirus in Western Australia

How were the past few days in Western Australia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

548Apr 24527Apr 15575May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Western Australia of about 0.479% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 150 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Western Australia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

527

-

Apr 16

532

+5 (+0.949%)

Apr 17

541

+9 (+1.69%)

Apr 18

541

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

541

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

541

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

541

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

541

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

546

+5 (+0.924%)

Apr 24

548

+2 (+0.366%)

Apr 25

551
548 - 553

+3 (+0.461%)

Apr 26

553
551 - 555

+3 (+0.479%)

Apr 27

556
554 - 558

+3 (+0.479%)

Apr 28

558
556 - 561

+3 (+0.479%)

Apr 29

561
559 - 563

+3 (+0.479%)

Apr 30

564
562 - 566

+3 (+0.479%)

May 1

567
564 - 569

+3 (+0.479%)

May 2

569
567 - 571

+3 (+0.479%)

May 3

572
570 - 574

+3 (+0.479%)

May 4

575
573 - 577

+3 (+0.479%)

Deaths by coronavirus

8Apr 246Apr 1511May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Western Australia of about 4.09% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 17 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Western Australia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6

-

Apr 16

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

7

+1 (+16.7%)

Apr 18

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

8

+1 (+14.3%)

Apr 25

8
7 - 9

+0 (+3.81e-10%)

Apr 26

8
8 - 9

+0 (+4.09%)

Apr 27

9
8 - 9

+0 (+4.09%)

Apr 28

9
8 - 10

+0 (+4.09%)

Apr 29

9
9 - 10

+0 (+4.09%)

Apr 30

10
9 - 11

+0 (+4.09%)

May 1

10
9 - 11

+0 (+4.09%)

May 2

11
10 - 11

+0 (+4.09%)

May 3

11
10 - 12

+0 (+4.09%)

May 4

11
11 - 12

+0 (+4.09%)

What is the mortality rate in Western Australia?

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.6%1.6%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Western Australia would be approx. 1.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Western Australia?

Coronavirus infections

0%0.949%1.69%0%0%0%0%0%0.924%0.366%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Western Australia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%16.7%0%0%0%0%0%0%14.3%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Western Australia in the previous days.

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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