Coronavirus in Aruba

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Aruba and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

4Mar 192Mar 1348Mar 29

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Aruba of about 26.7% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 2.9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Aruba assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

2

-

Mar 14

2

+0 (+0%)

Mar 15

2

+0 (+0%)

Mar 16

2

+0 (+0%)

Mar 17

3

+1 (+50%)

Mar 18

4

+1 (+33.3%)

Mar 19

4

+0 (+0%)

Mar 20

6
5 - 7

+2 (+41.4%)

Mar 21

7
6 - 9

+2 (+26.7%)

Mar 22

9
7 - 11

+2 (+26.7%)

Mar 23

12
9 - 14

+2 (+26.7%)

Mar 24

15
12 - 18

+3 (+26.7%)

Mar 25

18
15 - 23

+4 (+26.7%)

Mar 26

23
19 - 29

+5 (+26.7%)

Mar 27

30
24 - 36

+6 (+26.7%)

Mar 28

38
31 - 46

+8 (+26.7%)

Mar 29

48
39 - 59

+10 (+26.7%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Mar 190Mar 13

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Aruba assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

0

-

Mar 14

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 15

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 19

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Aruba?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2000000Mar 14Mar 19)}

In Aruba, approx. 0.809% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 106,000 people in Aruba, that corresponds to about 2 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days6 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Aruba?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%0%50%33.3%0%Mar 14Mar 19)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Aruba in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%Mar 14Mar 19)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Aruba in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Aruba develop?

High standardMedium standard0Mar 2016Apr 1032Apr 13

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Aruba. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (32 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (16 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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