Coronavirus in Armenia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Armenia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,600Apr 241,110Apr 152,440May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Armenia of about 4.33% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 16 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Armenia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,110

-

Apr 16

1,160

+48 (+4.32%)

Apr 17

1,200

+42 (+3.62%)

Apr 18

1,250

+47 (+3.91%)

Apr 19

1,290

+43 (+3.45%)

Apr 20

1,340

+48 (+3.72%)

Apr 21

1,400

+62 (+4.63%)

Apr 22

1,470

+72 (+5.14%)

Apr 23

1,520

+50 (+3.39%)

Apr 24

1,600

+73 (+4.79%)

Apr 25

1,660
1,650 - 1,680

+68 (+4.26%)

Apr 26

1,740
1,720 - 1,750

+72 (+4.33%)

Apr 27

1,810
1,800 - 1,820

+75 (+4.33%)

Apr 28

1,890
1,880 - 1,900

+79 (+4.33%)

Apr 29

1,970
1,960 - 1,990

+82 (+4.33%)

Apr 30

2,060
2,040 - 2,070

+85 (+4.33%)

May 1

2,150
2,130 - 2,160

+89 (+4.33%)

May 2

2,240
2,220 - 2,260

+93 (+4.33%)

May 3

2,340
2,320 - 2,350

+97 (+4.33%)

May 4

2,440
2,420 - 2,450

+101 (+4.33%)

Deaths by coronavirus

27Apr 2417Apr 1537May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Armenia of about 3.6% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 20 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Armenia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

17

-

Apr 16

18

+1 (+5.88%)

Apr 17

19

+1 (+5.56%)

Apr 18

20

+1 (+5.26%)

Apr 19

20

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

22

+2 (+10%)

Apr 21

24

+2 (+9.09%)

Apr 22

24

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

24

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

27

+3 (+12.5%)

Apr 25

27
25 - 29

+0 (+1.44e-9%)

Apr 26

28
26 - 30

+0 (+3.6%)

Apr 27

29
27 - 31

+1 (+3.6%)

Apr 28

30
28 - 32

+1 (+3.6%)

Apr 29

31
29 - 33

+1 (+3.6%)

Apr 30

32
30 - 34

+1 (+3.6%)

May 1

33
31 - 36

+1 (+3.6%)

May 2

35
32 - 37

+1 (+3.6%)

May 3

36
34 - 38

+1 (+3.6%)

May 4

37
35 - 40

+1 (+3.6%)

What is the mortality rate in Armenia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

761111022003Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Armenia, approx. 0.94% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 2,950,000 people in Armenia, that corresponds to about 76 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%2%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.9%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Armenia would be approx. 2.2%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Armenia?

Coronavirus infections

4.12%4.32%3.62%3.91%3.45%3.72%4.63%5.14%3.39%4.79%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Armenia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

6.25%5.88%5.56%5.26%0%10%9.09%0%0%12.5%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Armenia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Armenia develop?

High standardMedium standard13Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Armenia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (886 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (443 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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