Coronavirus in Andorra

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Andorra and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

731Apr 24673Apr 15773May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Andorra of about 0.582% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 120 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Andorra assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

673

-

Apr 16

673

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

696

+23 (+3.42%)

Apr 18

704

+8 (+1.15%)

Apr 19

713

+9 (+1.28%)

Apr 20

717

+4 (+0.561%)

Apr 21

717

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

723

+6 (+0.837%)

Apr 23

723

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

731

+8 (+1.11%)

Apr 25

734
731 - 737

+3 (+0.418%)

Apr 26

738
735 - 742

+4 (+0.582%)

Apr 27

743
739 - 746

+4 (+0.582%)

Apr 28

747
744 - 750

+4 (+0.582%)

Apr 29

751
748 - 755

+4 (+0.582%)

Apr 30

756
752 - 759

+4 (+0.582%)

May 1

760
757 - 764

+4 (+0.582%)

May 2

764
761 - 768

+4 (+0.582%)

May 3

769
765 - 772

+4 (+0.582%)

May 4

773
770 - 777

+4 (+0.582%)

Deaths by coronavirus

40Apr 2433Apr 1549May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Andorra of about 2.37% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 30 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Andorra assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

33

-

Apr 16

33

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

35

+2 (+6.06%)

Apr 18

35

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

36

+1 (+2.86%)

Apr 20

37

+1 (+2.78%)

Apr 21

37

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

37

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

37

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

40

+3 (+8.11%)

Apr 25

40
38 - 42

+0 (+7.33e-10%)

Apr 26

41
39 - 43

+0 (+2.37%)

Apr 27

42
40 - 44

+0 (+2.37%)

Apr 28

43
41 - 45

+0 (+2.37%)

Apr 29

44
42 - 46

+1 (+2.37%)

Apr 30

45
43 - 47

+1 (+2.37%)

May 1

46
44 - 48

+1 (+2.37%)

May 2

47
45 - 49

+1 (+2.37%)

May 3

48
46 - 50

+1 (+2.37%)

May 4

49
47 - 52

+1 (+2.37%)

What is the mortality rate in Andorra?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

12020110003Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Andorra, approx. 0.682% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 77,000 people in Andorra, that corresponds to about 1 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

5.5%5.5%5.5%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.7%5.7%5.9%5.9%6.1%6.2%6.3%6.7%6.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Andorra would be approx. 5.7%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Andorra?

Coronavirus infections

2.12%0%3.42%1.15%1.28%0.561%0%0.837%0%1.11%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Andorra in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

6.45%0%6.06%0%2.86%2.78%0%0%0%8.11%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Andorra in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Andorra develop?

High standardMedium standard2Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Andorra. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (23 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (12 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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