Coronavirus in Albania

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Albania and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

678Apr 24494Apr 15984May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Albania of about 3.74% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 19 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Albania assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

494

-

Apr 16

518

+24 (+4.86%)

Apr 17

539

+21 (+4.05%)

Apr 18

548

+9 (+1.67%)

Apr 19

562

+14 (+2.55%)

Apr 20

584

+22 (+3.91%)

Apr 21

609

+25 (+4.28%)

Apr 22

634

+25 (+4.11%)

Apr 23

663

+29 (+4.57%)

Apr 24

678

+15 (+2.26%)

Apr 25

707
700 - 715

+29 (+4.34%)

Apr 26

734
726 - 742

+26 (+3.74%)

Apr 27

761
753 - 769

+27 (+3.74%)

Apr 28

790
781 - 798

+28 (+3.74%)

Apr 29

819
810 - 828

+29 (+3.74%)

Apr 30

850
841 - 859

+31 (+3.74%)

May 1

882
872 - 891

+32 (+3.74%)

May 2

914
905 - 924

+33 (+3.74%)

May 3

949
938 - 959

+34 (+3.74%)

May 4

984
974 - 995

+35 (+3.74%)

Deaths by coronavirus

27Apr 2425Apr 1530May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Albania of about 1.14% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 61 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Albania assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

25

-

Apr 16

26

+1 (+4%)

Apr 17

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

26

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

27

+1 (+3.85%)

Apr 23

27

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

27

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

28
27 - 28

+0 (+1.9%)

Apr 26

28
27 - 28

+0 (+1.14%)

Apr 27

28
28 - 29

+0 (+1.14%)

Apr 28

28
28 - 29

+0 (+1.14%)

Apr 29

29
28 - 29

+0 (+1.14%)

Apr 30

29
29 - 30

+0 (+1.14%)

May 1

29
29 - 30

+0 (+1.14%)

May 2

30
29 - 30

+0 (+1.14%)

May 3

30
30 - 31

+0 (+1.14%)

May 4

30
30 - 31

+0 (+1.14%)

What is the mortality rate in Albania?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

511100000100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Albania, approx. 0.647% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 2,870,000 people in Albania, that corresponds to about 51 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4%4.1%4.3%4.4%4.6%4.8%4.9%5%5.2%5.5%5.7%5.8%6.1%6.2%6.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Albania would be approx. 5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Albania?

Coronavirus infections

4%4.86%4.05%1.67%2.55%3.91%4.28%4.11%4.57%2.26%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Albania in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

4.17%4%0%0%0%0%0%3.85%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Albania in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Albania develop?

High standardMedium standard5Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Albania. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (860 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (430 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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