Coronavirus in Afghanistan

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Afghanistan and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,350Apr 24784Apr 152,800May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Afghanistan of about 7.49% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 9.6 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Afghanistan assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

784

-

Apr 16

840

+56 (+7.14%)

Apr 17

906

+66 (+7.86%)

Apr 18

933

+27 (+2.98%)

Apr 19

996

+63 (+6.75%)

Apr 20

1,030

+30 (+3.01%)

Apr 21

1,090

+66 (+6.43%)

Apr 22

1,180

+84 (+7.69%)

Apr 23

1,280

+103 (+8.76%)

Apr 24

1,350

+72 (+5.63%)

Apr 25

1,460
1,440 - 1,480

+111 (+8.22%)

Apr 26

1,570
1,550 - 1,590

+110 (+7.49%)

Apr 27

1,690
1,670 - 1,710

+118 (+7.49%)

Apr 28

1,820
1,790 - 1,840

+127 (+7.49%)

Apr 29

1,950
1,930 - 1,980

+136 (+7.49%)

Apr 30

2,100
2,070 - 2,130

+146 (+7.49%)

May 1

2,260
2,230 - 2,290

+157 (+7.49%)

May 2

2,420
2,390 - 2,460

+169 (+7.49%)

May 3

2,610
2,570 - 2,640

+182 (+7.49%)

May 4

2,800
2,770 - 2,840

+195 (+7.49%)

Deaths by coronavirus

43Apr 2425Apr 1578May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Afghanistan of about 5.99% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 12 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Afghanistan assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

25

-

Apr 16

30

+5 (+20%)

Apr 17

30

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

30

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

33

+3 (+10%)

Apr 20

36

+3 (+9.09%)

Apr 21

36

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

40

+4 (+11.1%)

Apr 23

42

+2 (+5%)

Apr 24

43

+1 (+2.38%)

Apr 25

46
45 - 48

+3 (+8.01%)

Apr 26

49
47 - 51

+3 (+5.99%)

Apr 27

52
50 - 54

+3 (+5.99%)

Apr 28

55
53 - 58

+3 (+5.99%)

Apr 29

59
56 - 61

+3 (+5.99%)

Apr 30

62
60 - 65

+4 (+5.99%)

May 1

66
63 - 69

+4 (+5.99%)

May 2

70
67 - 73

+4 (+5.99%)

May 3

74
71 - 77

+4 (+5.99%)

May 4

78
75 - 82

+4 (+5.99%)

What is the mortality rate in Afghanistan?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,3602500330421Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Afghanistan, approx. 1.34% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 37,200,000 people in Afghanistan, that corresponds to about 1,360 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

3.2%3.4%3.7%3.9%4.2%4.3%4.6%4.7%5.1%5.5%6%6.5%7.1%7.7%8.3%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Afghanistan would be approx. 4.7%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Afghanistan?

Coronavirus infections

9.8%7.14%7.86%2.98%6.75%3.01%6.43%7.69%8.76%5.63%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Afghanistan in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

8.7%20%0%0%10%9.09%0%11.1%5%2.38%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Afghanistan in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Afghanistan develop?

High standardMedium standard16Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Afghanistan. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (11,200 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,580 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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